\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event:
Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) released the performance announcement for 2021. It is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 66.2 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of about 15%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 23.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 17%.
Key investment points:
1. In 2021, it is expected that the actual sales of the company will be better than the performance of the statement: in 2021, the company's revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company will increase by 15% / 17% respectively year-on-year, and achieve the double-digit growth target at the beginning of the year; In 2021q4, it is expected to realize an income of 16.48 billion yuan (an increase of about 11.1%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 6.02 billion yuan (an increase of about 11.3%). We expect that the sales volume of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) of the main brand will increase at a low double-digit level year-on-year in 2021; The ton price benefited from the unplanned quota increment and is expected to increase at the median single digit level year-on-year. In recent years, the growth rate of the company has slowed down. We believe that, on the one hand, it is normal for the company to realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price in the price belt of 1000 yuan for many consecutive years, with a high performance base, small growth elasticity and return to stability in the future, and the subsequent slowdown of the company is also normal; On the other hand, it may be related to the fact that the company adjusts the delivery through the transit warehouse, resulting in different rhythms of payment, dynamic sales and report confirmation. In 2021, the company focused on the elimination of historical inventory. The company's terminal dynamic sales are strong and the inventory pressure is reduced. We expect its terminal dynamic sales to be better than the performance of the report end, and the general five is still the benchmark product in the price band of 1000 yuan.
2. Full release of business vitality and accelerated return of brand value expectation: at present, the personnel adjustment of the company is basically in place, and the follow-up business vitality is expected to be fully released. It is expected that the focus of future marketing reform will still be the price support and brand construction of puwu. At the same time, the company continues to increase group buying at the channel end and optimize the dealer assessment system; At the product end, strategic items such as classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , mingmenchun and wuliangchun are arranged in turn, striving to expand the market share of Changshu Guorui Technology Co.Ltd(300600) yuan sub high-end and 2000 yuan super high-end price band, and looking forward to the return of brand value.
3. Profit forecast and investment rating: Recently, the market is pessimistic about the company, and the valuation has been suppressed by problems such as the general five rating has not broken the thousand for a long time, the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) broken the situation is not obvious, the continuity of management reform is not strong, and the demand for thousand yuan price belt is weak. In the long run, we believe that under the background of the price reduction of 1000 yuan and the company's high performance base, we should appropriately reduce the elastic expectation of the company's performance in the future. However, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) brand strength is outstanding, and the demand for core products is benign. In the future, it will continue to be large-scale in the price band of 1000 yuan, and continue to be optimistic about the steady growth of the company. It is estimated that the company's EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.02/6.96/8.06 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 27 / 23 / 20 times respectively, giving a "buy" rating.
4. Risk tips: 1) repeated epidemics lead to the inhibition of consumption; 2) Increased market competition leads to increased costs; 3) The price of Baijiu fell due to the sharp economic fluctuation; 4) The pace of product upgrading is less than expected; 5) Food safety risks. In case of any difference between the relevant data and information and the contents published by the company, the contents published by the company shall prevail.
