\u3000\u30 Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) 33 Zhejiang Huace Film And Tv Co.Ltd(300133) )
Core view
The performance is stable in 2021, and the scheduling rhythm affects the performance of Q1. 1) In 2021, the company achieved an operating revenue of 3.807 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 400 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 2.00% and 0.30% respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.21 yuan, with a stable performance; Among them, Q4 company realized an operating revenue of 839 million yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 76 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 54.4% and - 61.1% respectively; 2) In 22 years, Q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 471 million yuan and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 114 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 66.4% and 16.9% respectively. The decline in revenue and performance is mainly due to the high base in the same period last year and the rhythm of film and television drama scheduling; 3) The net cash flow from operating activities reached 1.409 billion yuan, and the operating quality continued to improve.
The leading position of TV drama business has been further demonstrated, and the film business has emerged. 1) In 2021, the company's TV drama business achieved a revenue of 3.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.25%, accounting for 83.3% of the revenue; The gross profit margin was 20.21%, down 5 percentage points year-on-year. In 2021, under the background that the total number of Chinese TV dramas dropped from 409 to 341, the number of TV dramas broadcast by the company bucked the trend and increased from 13 527 episodes in 2020 to 19 665 episodes in 2021. Among them, 7 TV dramas occupied the top 10 in the annual broadcast of each broadcasting platform, accounting for 36.8% of the company's projects, and the leading position was further established; At the same time, in terms of overseas business, it has established a matrix of overseas new media broadcasting and social platforms for Chinese film and television dramas, with 50 new media "Chinese Theater" channels and more than 10 million overseas subscribers; 2) In terms of film business, assassinating the novelist, which was released in 2021, became the company's first major investment and control commercial film with a box office of more than 1 billion. It is also the largest Chinese film released simultaneously overseas in recent years, and the film business has emerged.
The copyright business performed well and explored the possibility of reshaping IP value in the era of metauniverse. 1) The company has completed the organization and business integration of copyright start-up companies, and has become a leading enterprise in the volume of China's film and television permanent copyright library. During the reporting period, the copyright start-up company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 512668 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.61%; 2) Set up a special new business department of yuanuniverse, seize the new development opportunities in the digital era, and explore through the construction of digital platform for film and television content materials, linkage of publicity and distribution of film and television dramas, and distribution of digital collections. Risk warning: film and television drama sales risk; Regulatory policy risk; The box office is lower than the expected risk, etc.
Investment advice: maintain the profit forecast and maintain the "buy" rating.
Maintain the profit forecast and add a 24-year profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 202224 will be RMB 442 / 526 / 601 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11 / 19 / 14%; Diluted EPS = 0.23/0.28/0.32 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to PE = 24 / 20 / 17x. The company's leading position in the film and television industry is stable, the business quality continues to improve, the film and copyright operations are emerging, the IP value of the meta universe era is expected to be reshaped, and the "buy" rating will continue to be maintained.
