\u3000\u3 Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) 589 Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) )
On April 27, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: in the whole year of 21 / 21q4 / 22q1, the company realized a revenue of RMB 5.029/14.00/1.312 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 25.37% / + 5.72 / + 11.80%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.727577/485 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 35.38% / + 39.95% / + 15.53%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deduction was RMB 1.484379/473 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 19.45% / – 5.48% / 17.46%. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 73.9%, with a year-on-year increase of -1.27pct, or due to the impact of tax adjustment and code scanning fee cashing. The net profit of 21 years was 34.25%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.55 PCT; 22at the end of Q1, the company’s contractual liabilities + other current liabilities totaled 392 million yuan, a decrease of 329 million yuan during the period of advance receipts compared with 721 million yuan at the end of 21 years.
The product matrix is complete, and the high-end ton price rises. By product: in 2021, the company’s revenue of high-end / middle-grade / low-grade liquor was 4.777/1.01/88 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.48% / + 97.94% / + 20.13%. The proportion of high, middle and low grades was stable and showed an increasing trend. The price per ton is 1727 / 3.29 / 23600 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of + 6% / – 26% / – 2%. Reflect the year and continuously optimize the product structure of the series. In 22q1, the company achieved revenue of high / medium / low-grade liquor respectively: 1.239/0.25/0.29 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 11.29% / + 17.37% / + 20.19%. We believe that in the next 5 and 6 years, we will continue to deeply cultivate the 100 yuan price band and stabilize the basic market. In 10 and 20 years, we will have a large-scale basis at the price of 200500 yuan, and the new 518 card position 500 + secondary high-end price band. In terms of sub regions, the revenue within / outside the province will reach 4.078889 billion respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 28.47% / + 12.76%. Both inside and outside the province showed an increasing trend, accounting for 82.1% in the province, which was + 2pct compared with last year. In 2021, the revenue inside / outside the province reached 1.009293 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.15% / + 16.98%. In terms of channels: in 21 years, wholesale agents / direct sales (including group purchase) achieved revenue of 72 / 4.895 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 19.91% / + 25.43%. In 22q1, wholesale agent / direct selling (including group purchase) achieved revenue of 25 / 1.267 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 10.01% / + 11.61%. Number of dealers: at the end of 2021, there were 468 / 297 dealers inside and outside the province, with a net increase of 29 / 54. At the end of 2021, there were 471 / 307 dealers inside and outside the province, with a net increase of 3 / 10. Investment attraction outside the province accelerated.
Channel reform and organizational structure adjustment promote the government’s attention and support assessment. At the channel level: (1) reshape the “1 + n profit sharing” manufacturer relationship, start with new products, recruit new businesses and expand group purchase, so as to realize channel completion; (2) Since this year, the whole line product assessment system has been implemented for sales teams and dealers: once a category declines, it will withdraw and re attract investment. Organizational level: (1) Hefei marketing center has entered the decoration and commissioning stage, which is expected to be opened in May, and the headquarters has started territorial recruitment. East China marketing center is under construction; (2) Optimize the sales team from top to bottom, improve the assessment mechanism, demote and reduce the salary of provincial office managers who failed to meet the previous assessment, internally promote young and experienced manager assistants to the top, improve the team momentum and promote the youth of the organization. At the government level: in 2021, the company jumped to the first in Huaibei City and the second in Anhui Province. Provincial and municipal governments at all levels have paid more attention to it, and there will be both policy support and assessment pressure in the future.
Investment suggestion: as the leader of Anhui liquor, the company has a stable market in the province and will benefit from the consumption expansion brought by the high economic growth in the region. However, considering: (1) in the short term, the end consumption capacity is damaged due to the restriction of hall food in many places in the province due to the epidemic, and the space for replenishment after the epidemic may be limited; (2) The competition pattern of long-term liquor saving has intensified, and the effectiveness of various measures such as channel reform, organization adjustment and employee incentive of the company remains to be observed. Based on the above, we predict that the company will realize revenue of RMB 6.044/71.82/8.506 billion in 22-24 years, a year-on-year increase of + 20.2% / + 18.8% / + 18.4%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.09824642991 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 21.5% / + 17.4% / + 21.4%, EPS of 3.5/4.11/4.99 and corresponding PE of 15x / 12x / 10x respectively. Continue to be optimistic about the performance valuation repair opportunities brought about by the company’s reform, and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: (1) the support of economic growth in the province does not meet expectations; (2) The consumption scene and consumption capacity were damaged more than expected due to the epidemic; (3) The channel reform in the province and the market development outside the province were not as expected.
