\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 705 Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) )
Event: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 14.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.05%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 792 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 29.15%, deducting 682 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, a year-on-year decrease of – 26.77%; Among them, 2021q4 achieved an operating revenue of 4.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.26%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 198 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 5.24%, and a net profit not attributable to the parent of 152 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 58.6%. In Q1 of 2022, the company realized an operating revenue of 3.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.46%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.6%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent company of 152 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of – 11.71%.
Revenue side: export sales have increased steadily, domestic sales Q1 is under pressure, and Mofei products continue to diversify
In terms of export sales, the company achieved annual revenue of 11.62 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 14.24%, and Q4 achieved revenue of 3.09 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 3.7%. We believe that the tight Q4 shipping and other factors have a certain negative impact on the company’s shipping rhythm and revenue growth. However, from the perspective of the whole year, the export demand is still strong and the company’s business is still growing. In terms of domestic sales, the company achieved a revenue of 3.29 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 9.03% (including private brands + 6.62%) and Q4 achieved a revenue of 1.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.9%. Among them, the annual revenue of Mofei brand was about 1.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10%, and the revenue of Q4 was about 560 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 19%; The annual revenue of Dongling brand was about 240 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 21%, and that of Q4 was about 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6%. We believe that moffy’s good performance in the fourth quarter may be related to its revenue contribution in terms of gifts and group purchase at the end of the year. At the same time, the company has made smooth progress in the diversified development of domestic sales categories, and a matrix of clean electrical products has been preliminarily formed. Steam mops, mite removers and other products were released in the second half of the 21st century, and the new products of floor washers were released in February. They have the characteristics of super large water tank and dry and wet waste separation, which are the key categories for the company to develop, Or it is expected to further provide impetus for the growth of private brands.
Q1 situation: the export growth rate of 22q1 company is about 17%, and the growth rate is slightly higher than that of Q4. On the whole, the overseas demand of 22q1 remains relatively stable. The growth rate of domestic sales is about 3%. The pressure on domestic sales may be related to the continuous epidemic situation in China, which hinders logistics and express delivery, and then affects online sales. However, in terms of categories, moffy’s new categories performed well in the first quarter. According to the business consultant data, the transaction amount of 22q1 moffy brand household appliances was + 110% year-on-year, with a rapid growth rate; The growth rate of kitchen appliances 22q1 was – 21%, and the growth rate of kitchen appliances was under pressure, but some new categories still achieved high growth, including multifunctional pot – 38%, tableware disinfector + 51%, electric kettle + 57%.
The cost is high, the profit is under pressure, and the financial expense rate has decreased due to exchange rate fluctuations
In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 17.61%, year-on-year -5.71 PCT, and the net profit margin was 5.53%, year-on-year -3.23 PCT; The gross profit margin of 2021q4 was 17.79%, year-on-year + 0.47pct, and the net profit margin was 4.98%, year-on-year -0.39pct. The gross profit margin of Q1 in 2022 was 16.61%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.42pct, and the net profit margin was 5.13%, with a year-on-year rate of -0.51pct. The decline of major raw materials in Q4 has improved the company’s gross profit margin. Since 22q1, the price of bulk raw materials has risen again, and the pressure on domestic sales growth with high gross profit margin has led to the decline of the overall gross profit level compared with Q4.
Investment suggestion: revenue side: the company’s leading position in the main business of export ODM is stable, and the overseas demand is rising steadily; In terms of domestic private brands, although they are under pressure due to the logistics congestion caused by the epidemic in the short term, in the follow-up, Mofei’s entry into the field of clean electrical appliances is progressing smoothly, and the product matrix has been preliminarily completed, which is expected to maintain high-speed growth. Performance side: in terms of export, although the cost of raw materials has risen again since 22q1, it has been at a high level and has a continuous downward trend. The company’s profitability is expected to increase. At the same time, the recent continuous depreciation of RMB is good for the company’s main export business; In terms of domestic sales, the company’s continuous layout of clean electrical circuit is also expected to improve the profit level of its own brand, and the growth can be expected after the short-term influencing factors are dispersed. We expect the net profit of 22-24 years to be RMB 1.02 billion, RMB 1.24 billion and RMB 1.45 billion (the value of 22-23 years ago was RMB 1.018 billion and RMB 1.302 billion), corresponding to PE 1.11 billion 9x, 9.8x, 8.4x, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the promotion of new products is less than expected, the risk of macroeconomic slowdown, the risk of overseas demand is less than expected, and the risk of raw material price fluctuation
