At the close on January 13, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) (300737, SZ) closed at 14.87 yuan / share, down 9.44%. The reporter of the daily economic news noted that Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) released the performance forecast the night before, and it is expected to achieve a net profit of 630-800 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 29.24% ~ 10.15%. In 2020, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) made a profit of 890 million yuan.
As for the reasons for the year-on-year decline in profits, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) explained that the shipment maintained a steady growth in 2021, but the price of raw materials rose sharply, and the provision for bad debts of accounts receivable was also made. Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) relevant people told reporters that the accrual is the normal accounting treatment of risky accounts receivable by the company according to the accounting standards.
In addition, Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) said in the research report released on the same day that Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) has a significant impact on the large single accrual of receivables or profits. It is estimated that the amount of impact is more than 100 million, but the actual risk is small.
However, the reporter found that in the past two years, with the continuous expansion of revenue scale, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) accounts receivable also increased greatly. At the end of the third quarter of 2021, the accounts receivable of the enterprise exceeded 4 billion yuan.
net profit is expected to decline year-on-year
In the first three quarters of 2021, the revenue was RMB 5.683 billion and the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 673 million, with a year-on-year increase of 31.07% and 17.19% respectively. Therefore, even if the profit of more than 600 million yuan can still be achieved in 2021, for the outside world, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ‘s performance fell year-on-year, and the forecast came suddenly, and the stock suffered a large decline that day.
According to the performance forecast, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) in 2021, it is expected to realize a net profit of 630 million ~ 800 million yuan and a deduction of non net profit of 570 million ~ 740 million yuan, with a large decline year-on-year. In 2020, these two data are 890 million yuan and 886 million yuan respectively.
For the reasons for the decline in performance, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) analysis said that in 2021, the company’s shipments maintained steady growth, but the prices of upstream raw materials such as asphalt and emulsion increased sharply, resulting in a corresponding rise in the company’s production costs and a decline in gross profit margin. In addition, the company also made provision for bad debts of accounts receivable.
However, in the announcement, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) did not disclose in detail the specific extent of the impact of the provision for bad debts of accounts receivable and the rise of raw material costs on the performance in 2021.
The reporter of daily economic news learned that asphalt is one of the main raw materials of Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) . Investors have paid attention to the impact of its price fluctuation on performance for many times before.
At the investor exchange meeting at the beginning of this year, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) explained that in the long run, the improvement of the company’s bargaining power, raw material storage capacity and production scale can effectively reduce the impact of raw material price fluctuations; At the same time, the reporter noted that in March this year, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) issued the price adjustment notice letter to implement different price adjustment ranges for different categories of materials; In July this year, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) once again said that the purchase prices of raw materials had increased. In the short term, it had a certain pressure on the company’s operation, but had little impact, belonging to the normal fluctuation range.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) commented on the Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) performance forecast released on January 13 that considering that the average price of asphalt and other raw materials in the fourth quarter of 2021 is close to that in the third quarter, it is judged that the gross profit margin / operating profit margin of the company is relatively stable month on month, and the large single withdrawal of accounts receivable may have a significant impact on profits, “the amount of impact is expected to be more than 100 million”.
In 2021, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) revenue target is 8 billion yuan. According to the previous performance report, the total revenue in the first three quarters of 2021 was 5.683 billion yuan, corresponding to the revenue of 1.461 billion yuan, 2.3 billion yuan and 1.922 billion yuan in the three quarters respectively.
accounts receivable increased significantly
In recent years, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) has gradually increased its revenue scale and grown into one of the leading enterprises in China’s waterproof industry. At the same time, its accounts receivable scale has also changed greatly.
In 2018, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) revenue exceeded 3 billion yuan. By the end of the year, the book balance of accounts receivable was 1.555 billion yuan, including 1.29 billion yuan aged within one year.
At the beginning of 2019, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) put forward the target of “10 billion sales” for the first time, and set the target of operating revenue exceeding 10 billion yuan in 2022.
Subsequently, in 2019 and 2020, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) achieved significant growth in performance, with revenue reaching RMB 4.652 billion and RMB 6.238 billion respectively, but its corresponding book balance of accounts receivable at the end of the period also reached RMB 2.057 billion and RMB 2.749 billion.
Meanwhile, in 2019 and 2020, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) bad debt provision for accounts receivable was 177 million yuan and 360 million yuan respectively. Among them, the provision for bad debts increased significantly in 2020, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) explained that due to the poor management of the company’s customers China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) and the debt crisis, the provision for bad debts was made at 80% of their receivables.
The reporter of daily economic news found that by the end of the third quarter of 2021, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) accounts receivable had reached 4.049 billion yuan. In July 2021, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) introduced at the investor exchange meeting that, except for the provision for impairment of receivables of China Fortune Land Development Co.Ltd(600340) real estate, no major capital repayment problem has been found among the company’s customers.
The reporter also noted that Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) previously said in the announcement that while putting forward the goal of 10 billion, the company also formulated a series of sub goals, such as the control red line for the growth of accounts receivable. In addition, in January last year, Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) disclosed at the investor exchange meeting that about 45% of the company’s customers were strategic real estate customers; It is planned to reduce the proportion of real estate revenue, actively develop non real estate business and increase the proportion of non real estate revenue.
After the closing on the afternoon of January 13, the reporter only had a brief exchange with Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) relevant people by telephone, and then interviewed by e-mail, but no reply was received as of the deadline.
