\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
① the net profit attributable to the parent company in the same period of the previous year was RMB -3.25 billion, an increase of RMB -2.25 billion over the same period of the previous year, and the net loss attributable to the parent company in the same period of the previous year was RMB -2.25 billion, a year-on-year decrease of RMB -2.25 billion over the same period of the previous year; 22q1 net cash inflow from operating activities was 106 million yuan / yoy-47.11%. ② In terms of structure, the hotel business 22q1 achieved a revenue of 1.108 billion yuan / yoy-3.99%, a total profit of – 325 million yuan, an increase of 46 million yuan over the same period of last year; The business of the scenic spot achieved a revenue of 105 million yuan / yoy-11.05%, and a total profit of 53 million yuan, a decrease of 7.5123 million yuan compared with the same period of the previous year.
Q1 operation is generally under pressure, and house prices show strong toughness. All stores: the average RevPAR of 22q1 is 86 yuan / yoy-8.8% (compared with the same period of 19 years – 37.23%, and the recovery rate is about 63%), the average house price is 174 yuan / yoy + 3.0% (compared with the same period of 19 years – 2.8%, and the recovery rate is about 97%), and the occupancy rate is 49.2% / yoy-6.3pct (compared with the same period of 19 years – 27.5%, and the recovery rate is about 73%). Among them, RevPAR of economical / medium and high-end / light management hotels were 78 / 111 / 54 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.8% / 9.7% / 8.8%. In terms of the same store, 22q1 RevPAR is 88 yuan / yoy-10.5%, the average house price is 172 yuan / yoy + 0.9%, the occupancy rate is 51.1% / – 6.5pct, and the average house price of mature hotels opened for more than 18 months has increased slightly. By the end of Q1, there were more than one thousand hotels in the country.
The light management mode expanded steadily, and the number of stores increased year-on-year. There are 190 gross stores in 22q1, including 77 net stores and 113 closed stores (184 gross stores / 97 net stores in 21q1); 31 / 57 / 101 economic / medium and high-end / light management companies were opened respectively, of which 32 / 42 / 74 were net closed / net opened. Light management mode (including “cloud series” and “Huayi”) accelerated the opening of stores as the main force, accounting for 53.2% of the total number of new stores. Weight brands such as home, home business travel and home selection have a net opening of 23 / 19 / 11, cloud series has a net opening of 24 and Huayi has a net opening of 50. Emerging brands Aifan / Wanxin have a net opening of 6 / 2 respectively. As of 22q1, the number of stores / rooms of the company totaled 5993 / 478000 respectively, including 1426 medium and high-end stores, accounting for 23.8% / yoy + 0.4pct, 5249 franchise stores, accounting for 89.3% / yoy + 2pct, and the store structure continued to be optimized. By the end of 22q1, the company had 1827 stores in reserve, including 17.0% / 29.6% / 52.9% / 0.5% of economy / medium and high-end / light management / others, an increase of 36 compared with the end of 21, laying a foundation for achieving the goal of opening 18002000 stores in the whole year.
Investment suggestion: considering the impact of China’s epidemic spread since March 22, we have lowered the 22-year profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 390 / 10.5 / 1.25 billion in 22 / 23 / 24, and the corresponding PE will be 68x / 25X / 21x respectively. Although the company’s performance is under pressure in the short term, in the medium and long term, the space for industry integration is still large, and the acceleration and concentration trend of leaders is obvious; In addition, under the background of the deep De supply of the industry, with the recovery of the demand for leisure tourism and business travel after the epidemic, the hotel industry is expected to start a new boom upward cycle, the scale of the company’s stores continues to expand, and the post epidemic performance can be released. After the epidemic stabilizes, it is expected to catalyze the valuation repair of the company and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeds expectations, the expansion of stores is less than expected, and the management fee is at risk of decline
