\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 603 Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) )
Matters:
The company released the annual report of 2021: in 2021, the company realized an operating revenue of 10.117 billion yuan (15.19%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.344 billion yuan (+ 10.27%); Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.265 billion (+ 8.60%). In the fourth quarter and single quarter, the company realized revenue of 2.005 billion yuan (- 14.13%); The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is 120 million yuan (- 40.68%); Deduct non net profit of 91 million yuan (- 50.30%). The distribution plan of the company is as follows: Based on the total share capital of 1670705376 shares on December 31, 2021, the company will distribute cash dividends of RMB 3.00 (including tax) to all shareholders for every 10 shares, give bonus shares of 0 shares (including tax), and do not use the accumulation fund to increase the share capital. At the same time, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the company realized an operating revenue of 2.722 billion yuan (- 25.80%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 484 million yuan (- 28.22%); Deduct non net profit of 490 million yuan (- 26.67%).
Ping An View:
The epidemic affected the sales of Lianhua Qingwen, and the performance of 2021q4 and 2022q1 companies declined: Lianhua Qingwen is an important product of the company. According to calculation, we expect its revenue to account for more than 40% in 2020 and 2021. In 2021, the epidemic spread at many points. In the first quarter of 2022, the epidemic in Shanghai was serious, and the State restricted the sales of cold drugs in pharmacies. According to Zhongkang information, the overall market scale was about 31 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%. In this case, the company’s sales of Lianhua Qingwen in 2021 declined, resulting in a decline in the performance of 2021q4 and 2022q1. Lianhua Qingwen was listed as the recommended drug in the diagnosis and treatment plan of the state and more than 20 provinces and cities in the prevention and control of covid-19 pneumonia epidemic, and was widely used in designated admission hospitals and shelter hospitals in Hubei Province. With the effective control of the follow-up epidemic situation, superimposed Lianhua Qingwen capsule entered the centralized collection of Guangdong alliance by only 1%, and the long-term development of the company can be expected.
The cardiovascular and cerebrovascular product line and other patented drugs have achieved rapid growth: Tongxinluo, Shensong Yangxin capsule and Qiliqiangxin capsule, the company’s three major cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products, are the company’s patented products. In 2020, the three products achieved a total sales revenue of 4.534 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 31.56%. The market share of the company’s three cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products increased from 13.6% in 2015 to 17.8% in the first half of 2021. Other patented products of the company include, Jinlida granule, YangZheng Xiaoji capsule, xialiqi capsule, etc. the revenue of other patented products in 2021 was 472 million yuan (+ 55.6%). Although the volume of these patented products is small, but the growth rate is fast, and they are expected to become large varieties to promote the development of the company in the future. With the further improvement of the academic brand of products and the strengthening of academic promotion in the future, the company’s cardiovascular and cerebrovascular products and other patented products are expected to achieve accelerated growth.
Maintain the “recommended” rating: the company’s Lianhua Qingwen has a solid customer base in the anti-virus field, and its market share in the anti-virus field continues to increase; The second tier products are in the stage of expanding the market, and the sales are growing steadily. Considering the impact of the epidemic on the company’s product sales, we lowered the company’s profit forecast from 2022 to 2023 (the original forecast was 1.25 yuan and 1.47 yuan in EPS from 2022 to 2023), and added the forecast for 2024. The company’s EPS is expected to be 0.99 yuan, 1.24 yuan and 1.55 yuan respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk tips: 1. Risk of industrial policy adjustment. The pharmaceutical industry is greatly affected by policies. In the past two years, various policies have been intensively introduced, which may affect the company’s performance. 2. Risk of drug price reduction. The implementation of measures such as drug bidding and price reduction, secondary price negotiation and medical insurance policy adjustment will affect the performance of pharmaceutical companies. 3. Risk of price fluctuation of raw materials. The company’s main products are Chinese patent medicines, and the raw materials come from Chinese herbal medicines from all over the world. The price of Chinese herbal medicines is easily affected by weather and region, resulting in the fluctuation of the company’s cost.
