\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
The company issued the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 87%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 890 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.7%, a deduction of 890 million yuan from the non parent company, a year-on-year increase of + 101.5%, and the performance fell below the median value of the performance forecast; In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 1.69 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 94.5%, and a deduction of non attributable to the parent company of 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 94.8%, in line with expectations.
2021 ends successfully, drunkard internal reference two wheel drive. In 2021, the company achieved a sales volume of 12400 tons, a year-on-year increase of + 36.4%, and the ton price increased by 37% to 274000 yuan / kiloliter. The volume and price rose together and ended successfully. In terms of products, in 2021, neishen / drunkard / Xiangquan / others achieved a revenue of 10.3/19.2/1.8/280 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 80.7% / 88.9% / 11.7% / 255.9%. The two wheel drive of Jiugui neishen is gaining momentum, with a year-on-year increase of sales of + 76.6% / 74.1% / – 15.7% / + 102%, a year-on-year increase of ton price of + 2.3% / 8.5% / 32.6% / 76.2%. The internal parameters are first in price, with the height of cultural famous wine as the brand and the price of drunkard first in volume. The primary task is to straighten out large single products, stabilize channel profits and promote high-quality development, The annual gross profit margin increased by + 1.1pct to 80% year-on-year.
2022 has a good start, rational control of goods and long-term vision. The company previously announced that the revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February is expected to be about + 120% / 130% year-on-year, and the Q1 revenue / net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be + 86% / 94.5% year-on-year. The delivery slowed down significantly in March, controlling the goods and supporting the price, demonstrating the company’s determination to pursue high-quality development. It is expected that the Q1 drunkard and internal staff will go hand in hand, and the sales gross profit rate will be + 0.4% PCT to 79.8% year-on-year. The contractual liabilities in 2021 / 2022q1 were 1.38/680 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 92.0% / 16.3% and a month on month increase of + 800 million / – 710 million. The contractual liabilities remained high at the end of 2022q1, leaving room for future growth.
The improvement of product profitability and operating efficiency promotes profitability. In 2021, the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company / deducting non attributable to the parent company was 26.2% / 25.9%, respectively – 0.8 / + 1.9pct year-on-year, mainly due to the increase of gross profit margin (+ 1.1pct) and the decrease of period expense ratio (sales / management expense ratio + 2 / – 2.6pct year-on-year), and the year-on-year non recurring profit and loss was – 85.6%, mainly due to the impact of compensation for last year’s cases. In 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by + 1.3pct to 30.9% year-on-year, mainly due to the sales / management expense ratio of – 0.4 / – 1.7pct to 21.8% / 1.7% year-on-year respectively.
Outlook 2022: continue to cultivate the market and promote high-quality development. Market: in 2021, the number of dealers of the company increased by 493 to 1256, with a year-on-year increase of + 64.6%. The number of core terminal outlets reached 19752, with a year-on-year increase of 137%. The coverage rate of prefecture level cities / county-level cities in Hunan reached 67% / 94%. In 2022, it is planned to build a 1.5 billion level base market, build 1 billion yuan provincial market and 3 base markets above 500 million, and continue to cultivate the market and intensive cultivation. Products: in the future, the company will still focus on large single products, adhere to the bottom-up price band layout of Xiangquan, drunkard and internal reference, and fully enjoy the dividend of consumption upgrading; Leading the development of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) with cultural innovation, the company’s sales expenses increased by 123.6% in 2021, and the activities of internal participation in value seminars and “famous wine into famous enterprises” continued to be promoted. It is optimistic that the height of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) brand will continue to improve. Capacity: the company continues to promote capacity construction. At present, the company’s capacity is about 10000 tons. After the completion of each project in 2023, the capacity will reach 23000 tons, laying a solid foundation for high-quality development in the future.
Profit forecast: after lowering the previous profit forecast and introducing it into 2024, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 4.85/62.3/7.62 billion yuan in 202224 (originally 49.8/6.52 billion yuan in 202223), a year-on-year increase of 41.9% / 28.5% / 22.3% respectively, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.37/18.2/22.9 billion yuan (originally 1.48/2.01 billion yuan in 202223), a year-on-year increase of 52.7% / 33.0% / 26.0% respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 37 / 28 / 22 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the national development is less than expected, the price of high-end wine fluctuates sharply, and the epidemic situation repeatedly affects mobile sales.
