\u3000\u30006 Oceanwide Holdings Co.Ltd(000046) 00004)
Business data: under the disturbance of local epidemic, the number of passengers and sorties in Q1 decreased by 22q1 year-on-year, and Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) take-off and landing sorties were 85900, with a year-on-year increase of - 10%, + 17% and - 29% respectively in 21 / 120 / 19; The passenger throughput is about 8.46 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of - 20%, + 1% and - 53% respectively in 21 years / 20 years / 19 years; In terms of Chinese routes, the number of passengers spitting in spring was about 8.33 million, up from - 20% + 31% and - 38% respectively in 21 years, 220 years and 19 years.
Performance: non aviation revenue increased + management expenses decreased, with a year-on-year loss of 72 million yuan
22q1, the company's operating revenue was 1.24 billion yuan / + 4.6%. We expect that the non aviation revenue side increased significantly year-on-year, covering the decline of aviation business revenue. The operating cost is 1.22 billion yuan / - 0.7%, and the management expense is 75 million yuan / - 15%. The cost reduction and efficiency increase effect of the company is gradually released. The net profit attributable to the parent company was -83 million yuan, with a year-on-year loss of 72 million yuan, showing strong toughness.
Outlook: waiting for the release of epidemic prevention policy and the restoration of the company's performance after the recovery of international passenger flow
The company announced the signing of a contract with LV in October 2021. The taxable store is expected to open in the second half of this year. The luxury brand is expected to have herding effect, and the business value ceiling of the company's taxable channels is expected to open. According to the judgment of the 14th five year plan of civil aviation, 20212022 is the recovery period and savings period of the industry, and 20232025 is the growth period and release period, focusing on expanding the Chinese market and restoring the international market. After further liberalizing travel restrictions overseas, travel demand continues to pick up. After China's international passenger flow recovers, the sales of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) duty-free stores will be repaired and return to the track of rapid growth. The company will usher in the double repair of performance and valuation. Before the outbreak, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) tax-free sales volume was small, and the per capita tax-free sales volume was less than 1 / 3 of that of Beishang airport, so there was huge long-term potential.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company's tax-free flexibility is basically unchanged, and the layout of tax-free businesses focusing on luxury has achieved a breakthrough from 0 to 1. In the medium term, it can become a call option for entry-exit recovery. We expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 22 to 24 years to be about RMB 50 million, RMB 990 million and RMB 1.8 billion respectively, and the target price in 2022 is RMB 17.92/share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The recovery of the epidemic was less than expected, and the tax-free sales were less than expected.
