\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) publish the annual report of 21 and the quarterly report of January 22. In 2021, the company achieved revenue of 19.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, net profit of 5.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%, and earnings per share of 4.37 yuan. 4q21 revenue and net profit were 2.71 billion yuan and 440 million yuan respectively. 1q22 achieved revenue of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, net profit of 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.0%, and earnings per share of 3.04 yuan. At the end of 1q21, the advance collection was 4.39 billion yuan, an increase of 1.07 billion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 3.7 billion yuan month on month compared with the beginning of the year. The performance meets the forecast.
Key points supporting rating
Promote high-end products, the blue and white series grew rapidly, and the markets inside and outside the province achieved rapid growth. In 2021, the revenue increased by 42.8% and the net profit increased by 72.6%. (1) By product, the revenue of Fenjiu series reached 17.92 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 41.9%. The revenue of series liquor was 640 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.7%, and the revenue of prepared liquor was 1.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.4%. The company promotes the strategy of high-end products, promotes circle expansion and market promotion, improves the awareness of fragrance categories, and focuses on blue and white, strong waist and stable glass Fen. The potential of blue and white brand is very good. Qing 30 lays out the price belt of 1000 yuan, and drives the sales of sub high-end Qing 20. The blue and white series has achieved high-speed growth as a whole. (2) In terms of subregions, the revenue within the province in 2021 was 8.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, and the revenue outside the province was 11.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%. Benefiting from the coal economy in the province, the market outside the province has expanded rapidly, strengthened the market expansion in the south of the Yangtze River, and promoted steady breakthroughs in the markets of Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Anhui and Guangdong. The average growth rate of sales in the south market has reached more than 60%. According to the information of Fenjiu workers’ conference, the Fenjiu billion yuan market increased to 22 in 2021, the number of dealers outside the province increased by 30.5% year-on-year, and the number of controllable terminals increased to 1.05 million. (3) at the beginning of 2021, the company optimized the marketing organization structure and completed the replacement of new and old marketing backbone. The post-80s became the main person in charge of regional and provincial managers, and a large number of post-90s marketing personnel enriched the sales line, which stimulated the endogenous motivation of the marketing team.
1q22 revenue increased by 43.6% and net profit increased by 70.0%, continuing to lead the Baijiu industry. (1) In terms of products, 1q22 Fen Liquor, series liquor and prepared liquor achieved revenue of 9.87 billion yuan, 260 million yuan and 350 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 44.4%, + 7.2% and + 118.3%. We judge that Qing 25, Qing 30 and Qing 20 achieved rapid growth. (2) In terms of sub regions, the income within the province was 3.85 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3%, that outside the province was 6.63 billion yuan, an increase of 52.5%, and the proportion outside the province increased by 3.9pct to 63.2%. (3) The net interest rate increased significantly in the first quarter, mainly due to the year-on-year decrease of 6.8pct in the sales expense rate.
The revenue is planned to increase by about 25% in 2022. We judge that the whole year is expected to exceed the target planning and continue to be strategically optimistic about Fenjiu. (1) In the past five years, Fenjiu has achieved success at the same time at two completely different product prices of 50 yuan and 500 yuan, which is rare in the history of Baijiu development. Meanwhile, among the main products of sub high-end famous wines, Qing 30 is a rare variety that can double the rated price. These two things have confirmed the strong brand strength of Fen Liquor. (2) According to the information of the employee congress, the new chairman systematically summarized the achievements of the company in 2021, analyzed the challenges and deficiencies faced by the company’s development, and put forward the development ideas in 2022. We believe that the new chairman has excellent resume and experience, and the new team can quickly complete the running in, continue the direction of reform and move forward quickly.
Valuation
According to the latest financial report and epidemic situation, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.07 yuan, 7.93 yuan and 10.17 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 39%, 31% and 28%, maintaining the buy rating and continuing to focus on recommendation.
Main risks of rating
The impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations. Channel inventory exceeded expectations.
