\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 461 Guangzhou Zhujiang Brewery Co.Ltd(002461) )
Event: the company released the first quarter report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating revenue of 872 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 71 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.45%.
High end products lead to structural optimization in large quantities, and the impact of the epidemic is relatively small. 22q1 company achieved an operating revenue of 872 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.77%. Split volume and price, 22q1 company achieved a sales volume of 234800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.26%; The price per ton was 371299 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.14%. On the sales side, the beer industry benefited from factors such as the base effect, the recovery of catering scene and the confidence of channel goods preparation. From January to February, the beer sales of the company increased by 15.3% year-on-year in January of 22 years, and the total sales from January to February increased by 8.8% year-on-year; In March, South China was impacted by the epidemic, but the overall sales side was less affected. On the structural side, the performance of the company's high-end products continued to shine, leading the structural optimization. Among them, the sales volume of pure draft beer accounted for 49.14% (+ 5.37%), the sales volume of can products accounted for 37.97% (+ 3.61%), and the sales volume of 97 pure draft high-end core products was 37500 tons (+ 50.37%). In recent years, the company has been trying to optimize the product structure, improve the linkage effect and brand value and improve the construction of product system through cross-border cooperation of "beer + sports, beer + music and beer + food".
The cost side affects the profit pressure, and the long-term trend of cost reduction and efficiency increase is good. The company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 71 million yuan in 2022q1, a slight increase of 1.45% year-on-year. In 2022q1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 40.39% (-1.92pcts) and a net profit margin of 8.74% (-1.00pcts); The rates of sales / management / Finance / R & D expenses were 16.07% / 7.82% / - 6.55% / 3.58% respectively, with a year-on-year change of -1.81 / - 0.8 / + 0.54 / + 0.13pcts. The rate optimization alleviated the cost pressure. At present, the rising cost of raw materials is still the main pressure on the profit side of the company. Due to the repeated impact of the epidemic, the gross profit margin has declined. However, the company hedged the cost pressure and reduced the decline of net profit margin through reasonable cost control. Looking forward to the whole year, on the one hand, according to the market price, the company will lock the purchase price of different materials in cycles, stages and batches to strengthen the cost procurement management; On the other hand, optimize the product structure, increase the proportion of medium and high-end products, and strengthen cost control, so as to reduce costs and increase efficiency and optimize profit space.
Based on the base market, the company promotes the improvement of product structure, grasps the ready to drink market and caters to the main melody of the industry. Following the development trend of high-end beer and based on the brand strategy of "3 + n" (Xuebao, Chunsheng and Zhujiang + characteristics), the company has increased the volume of 97 Chunsheng and other new products, and continuously launched new products such as special Chunsheng, coffee Shitao and new British IPA, with remarkable results in structural upgrading. The company further consolidated its regional advantages, deeply cultivated the base Market in South China, seized the ready to drink channel and promoted the upgrading of product structure. At the same time, the company explored multiple business modules, integrated the development of beer business and Baijiu business to create a new business format, and the cultural industry continued to develop. The company fully tapped the growth potential of the consumer market and accelerated the growth of the company's scale around the resilient consumer market and quality consumer demand.
Profit forecast: it is predicted that the company will achieve revenue of RMB 4.917/51.78/5.447 billion from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 8.34% / 5.32% / 5.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 698 / 820 / 917 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 14.20% / 17.52% / 11.82%, and EPS was 0.32/0.37/0.41 yuan, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the price of raw materials is rising, the competition in the high-end market is intensifying, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the promotion of new products is not as expected.
