\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: the company announced that the operating revenue in 2021 was 66.209 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.51%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.15%. In 2021q4, the operating revenue was RMB 16.488 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 11.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.84%. In 2022, Q1 achieved an operating revenue of 27.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.08%. The company plans to pay a cash dividend of 30.23 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares.
In 2021, the performance grew steadily, the ton price rose steadily, and the channel reform achieved remarkable results. In terms of products, in 2021, the sales revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) main brands and series of wines reached 49.112 billion yuan and 12.62 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 11.46% / + 50.71%, and the ton price increased by + 7.40% / + 30.69% respectively. In terms of channels, the sales revenue of dealer channels / direct sales channels was 50.137/11.595 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.48% / + 64.37%, and the growth rate of direct sales channels was bright. The company continued to strengthen channel reform and actively promoted refined channel operation. In 2021, the proportion of the revenue of the top five dealers decreased by 8.92pct to 9.15%, and the channel management and control ability was strengthened.
Safeguard the interests of dealers and continuously improve their profitability. In 2021, the gross profit margin increased by + 1.2pct to 75.4%, and the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 9.8% / 4.4% respectively, maintaining a stable level. The net profit margin attributable to the parent company increased by 0.5 PCT to 35.3%, and the profitability was improved. In terms of cash flow, the contractual liabilities in 2022q1 were 3.607 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 72.38%, and the net cash flow from operating activities was – 3.401 billion yuan, mainly because the company reduced the collection proportion of cash in advance receipts to reduce the financial pressure of dealers, safeguard the interests of dealers and improve channel reputation. The company and dealers are expected to work together and win-win. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 78.41%, year-on-year + 1.98 PCT, and the sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 7.38% / 3.56% respectively, year-on-year + 0.29pct / – 0.35pct; The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 39.29%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.96pct, and the profitability continued to improve.
The wholesale price of puwu is stable and one thousand yuan can be expected, and the operation is expected to start a positive cycle. During the Spring Festival peak season, the company adheres to the price support strategy, the rating continues to rise, and the channel confidence has been boosted. In March, the personnel adjustment of the management was finalized, and various reform measures in the first year of the new team are expected to be further deepened. Looking forward to the whole year, by creating a classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) to enhance the brand potential and adding the improvement of the company’s ability of accurate channel management and control, the general five rating is expected to continue to rise and stand firm in the 1000 yuan price band, and the channel profit is expected to further thicken, so as to strengthen the channel thrust and help the company’s operation enter a positive cycle.
Investment suggestion: the company’s various business reforms have achieved initial results, and the return of brand value is expected to accelerate. We are optimistic about the company’s subsequent reforms in product, brand and channel management. It is estimated that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 6.95 yuan, 8.01 yuan and 9.58 yuan respectively, maintain the Buy-A investment rating, and give a six-month target price of 222 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 32x in 2022.
Risk tips: macroeconomic and policy risks, food safety problems and intensified industry competition
