\u3000\u30006 Shenzhen Guangju Energy Co.Ltd(000096) 00009)
Key investment points
Business data: under the disturbance of the local epidemic, the number of passengers and sorties in Q1 decreased by 2201 year-on-year, and Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) take-off and landing sorties were 74800, with a year-on-year increase of - 8%, + 2% and - 41% respectively in 21 / 20 / 19; The passenger throughput is about 5.48 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of - 18%, - 32%, - 71% respectively in 21 years / 20 years / 19 years; In terms of Chinese routes, the passenger throughput of Q1 was about 5.04 million person times, with a year-on-year increase of - 21%, + 25% and - 45% respectively in 21 / 20 / 19 years. Among them, the passenger throughput of China in March was - 79% year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the epidemic situation in Shanghai and across the country.
Performance: the tax-free rental income was 117 million yuan / + 27%, and the loss increased by 73 million yuan year-on-year
22q1, the company's operating revenue was 840 million yuan / - 2.9%, of which the aviation revenue was about 350 million yuan / - 12%, mainly due to the year-on-year decline in passenger volume and sorties; Non airline revenue is about 490 million yuan / + 4.4%, of which tax-free rental revenue is 117 million yuan / + 27%, mainly because the international and regional passenger volume is + 39% year-on-year, and the corresponding "passenger flow coefficient area coefficient" is about 1.98; Other non aviation revenue was about 380 million yuan, basically flat year-on-year. Q1 operating cost is 1.36 billion yuan / - 7.6%, mainly due to the decline of production data; The net profit attributable to the parent company was -509 million yuan, and the loss increased by 73 million yuan year-on-year, which was mainly affected by the epidemic.
Outlook: waiting for the increase of tax-free income after the recovery of international passenger flow
According to the 14th five year plan of civil aviation, the key point is to expand the Chinese market and restore the international market from 2023 to 2025. Once the international passenger flow recovers, we believe that the company's tax-free income is expected to increase significantly, the tax-free flexibility is also expected to recover, and the company's bargaining power will be repaired quickly, which is expected to usher in the double repair of performance and valuation.
Without considering the impact of major asset restructuring, we expect the net profit of 22-24 years to be -1.33 billion, 3.79 billion and 5.09 billion yuan, and the target price in 2022 to be 67.90 yuan / share, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of passenger flow is less than expected, and the repair of the epidemic is less than expected.
