\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 345 Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) )
The company achieved high growth in business performance in 2021, and declined slightly in 2022q1 affected by the epidemic
In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 4.636 billion yuan (+ 44.2%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 351 million yuan (+ 151.0%); In 2022q1, the revenue was 1.253 billion yuan (+ 11.9%), and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 95 million yuan (- 9.4%). We believe that the company's product side establishes a differentiated brand image with fashion jewelry, and the channel side makes efforts to accelerate the expansion of franchise stores, which is expected to continue to grow. We maintain the company's profit forecast for 20222023 unchanged and add the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 20222024 will be RMB 451 / 566 / 700 million, corresponding to EPS of RMB 0.51/0.64/0.79, and the current share price corresponding to PE of 8.4/6.7/5.4 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Gold jewelry and leather goods (women's bags) businesses have achieved high growth, and the contribution of franchise agency channels is outstanding
In terms of products, in 2021, the company's revenue of fashion jewelry / traditional gold / leather goods reached RMB 2.78/12.8/450 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 25.5% / + 97.2% / + 65.9%; In terms of channels, the company's self operated / agency / other businesses achieved revenue of RMB 3.11/13.4/100 billion respectively in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of + 30.7% / + 84.8% / + 66.1%, and the franchise agency channels increased significantly. In terms of profitability, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin in 2021 was 33.4% (- 2.4pct), and the sales / management / financial expense ratio was 18.4% / 2.1% / 0.8% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -4.3pct / - 1.2pct / - 0.9pct respectively. The expense ratio was well controlled. In the first quarter of 2022, affected by the epidemic in East China, the company's performance decreased slightly compared with the high base in 2021; In 2022q1, the comprehensive gross profit margin was 31.3% (- 4.7pct), with a year-on-year decline mainly due to the increase in the proportion of franchise channels. The sales / management / financial expense rates were 16.1% / 1.8% / 0.7% respectively, and the profitability was basically stable.
Channel expansion, brand promotion, digital construction, multi-dimensional efforts to create Eastern Pioneer Driving School Co.Ltd(603377) jewelry leader
(1) channel expansion: the company effectively accelerates the channel layout through the franchise mode. In 2021, the net increase of Guangdong Chj Industry Co.Ltd(002345) jewelry franchise stores was 159, the total number of franchise stores at the end of the period reached 711, and it plans to open more than 200 new franchise stores in 2022;
(2) brand promotion: stars such as Tang Yixin and Qiao Xin are invited to help spread the brand, and cross-border cooperation with terensu and huaxizi is also carried out to highlight the "Guochao" brand style, cooperate with the high-quality product matrix and strengthen the brand mark of Oriental culture;
(3) digital construction: accelerate the upgrading iteration of smart cloud store, take the maximization of user value as the core, and digital empowerment can improve the performance of single store. In the long run, focusing on urban white-collar female consumers, the company will build Eastern Pioneer Driving School Co.Ltd(603377) a differentiated brand image, focus on the main jewelry industry and expand the franchise channels, which is expected to continue to grow at a high level.
Risk tips: repeated epidemic, intensified industry competition, less than expected franchise expansion, goodwill impairment risk, etc.
