\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 066 China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) )
Key investment points
Event: the company's q122 performance was better than that of most securities companies, with a revenue of RMB 6.332 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 31.8%, a net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 1.542 billion, a year-on-year increase of - 10.5%, and a weighted average roe2.5% 1%, year-on-year -0.67pct. Proportion: brokerage 24.7%, investment banking 25.1%, asset management 2.6%, interest 5.3%, investment 10.0%, others 32.3%. Growth rate: brokerage + 13.6%, investment banking + 95.4%, asset management - 25.0%, interest + 13.0%, investment - 47.6%, others + 7.1%.
Performance attribution: [bright growth of investment banks] q122 equity underwriting of the company: 9 IPOs, with an underwriting amount of 27.58 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry; There are 17 refinancing companies, with an underwriting amount of 37.605 billion yuan, ranking first in the industry. The total underwriting amount of CITIC bonds is only 672.5 billion yuan, accounting for 387.5% of the total underwriting amount of CITIC bonds; 203 corporate bonds + corporate bonds were underwritten, with an underwriting amount of 92.537 billion yuan, accounting for 10.95% of the market, ranking first in the industry. [stable brokerage & interest income] the average daily turnover of q122a shares was 1.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 6.8% and a month on month increase of - 8.2%. The market retreated sharply and the trading activity did not decrease significantly. At the end of q122, the company's customer margin + provision + 38.2% year-on-year, and financed funds + 11.8% year-on-year, driving the steady growth of brokerage & interest income. [expenditure side] the operating expenditure was 4.328 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 57.1%, of which the management expense was 2.522 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 22.0%, and the credit impairment was 107 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 197.5%, resulting in a high increase in the company's revenue and a decline in net profit.
Investment banks have core competitiveness and asset light roe is leading in the industry: as of April 30, the company has 30 IPO project reserves, second only to 41 of CITIC, maintaining a leading position. In addition, the new third board company, the company's host securities firm, has a total market value of 85.5 billion yuan, ranking third in the industry and second in listed securities companies. With the business development and growth of the Beijing stock exchange, the company is expected to benefit from regional financial activities driven by the Beijing stock exchange. Q122roe is ahead of most peers. Considering the relatively light assets of the company, we expect the profitability of the company to remain high in the future.
Investment suggestion: the return on investment of q122 company is a drag on the performance. Considering that there are still many uncertain factors in the current capital market, we lowered the assumption of the company's return on investment, and based on this, we lowered the profit forecast for 202224 by 5.3%, 5.1% and 5.9%. The current share price of the company corresponds to 2022ep / B2 34x, the valuation is below the 20% quantile since listing. Considering that the company has core competitiveness and strong profitability, it maintains "buy-b".
Risk tip: the income of investment banking business is lower than expected, the fluctuation of capital market is intensified, and the horizontal competition is intensified.
