\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 668 China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) )
The high revenue growth shows the leading resilience, and the investment income contributes to the rapid growth of performance. In 2022q1, the company realized an operating revenue of 485.4 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 12.9 billion yuan, an increase of 17.6% at the same time; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 11.4 billion, an increase of 4.4% at the same time. The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company was higher than that of non deduction performance, which was mainly due to the fact that the investment income from the acquisition of equity of participating companies by subordinate subsidiaries during the reporting period increased significantly compared with the same period last year. According to the announcement, the transaction is expected to invest 3.689 billion yuan by CNOOC real estate to acquire part of the equity of Guangzhou Asian Games city project held by ya’leju and Shimao. In terms of sectors, the real estate construction business achieved a revenue of 319.6 billion yuan, an increase of 19.9% at the same time. It still achieved rapid growth in the current downturn of the real estate industry, showing the resilience of the leading business. The revenue of infrastructure / real estate / survey and design business was 1076 / 531 / 2.4 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 12.7% / + 34.4% / – 6.5%. In terms of sub regions, the domestic / overseas revenue reached 466.8 billion yuan / 18.6 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 21.2% / – 5.5%. The overseas epidemic still has a certain impact on the construction promotion of the company.
The real estate business dragged down the overall gross profit margin, and the expense rate increased slightly. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 company is 8.16%, down 0.61 PCT year-on-year, which is expected to be mainly dragged down by the decline of gross profit margin in the real estate sector. During the period, the expense rate was 3.98%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.13 PCT, of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate changed by + 0.01 / – 0.35 / + 0.46 / + 0.01 PCT respectively year-on-year. The decrease of the management expense rate is expected to be mainly due to the gradual emergence of the benefits of project lean management and scale expansion; The increase in R & D expense rate was mainly due to the increase in the company’s investment in scientific research projects during the reporting period. The income tax rate was 21.91%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.04 PCT. The net interest rate attributable to the parent company was 2.66%, a slight decrease of 0.05 PCT year-on-year. The net outflow of Q1 operating cash flow was 122.5 billion yuan, an increase of 76.7 billion yuan over the same period last year, which was mainly due to the fact that some subsidiaries used the epidemic recovery period to speed up the project process, and the payment proportion increased year-on-year.
In Q1, the newly signed contract amount increased by 13% and the business structure was continuously optimized. From January to March 2022, the newly signed contract amount of the company was 835 billion yuan, an increase of 12.6% at the same time. Benefiting from the steady growth policy, the company’s Q1 orders achieved steady growth. In terms of business, the newly signed contract amount of the real estate construction sector was 626.6 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4% at the same time, accelerating by 2.4 PCT compared with January February. Under the pressure of real estate fundamentals, the real estate construction orders still achieved steady growth. It is expected that the proportion of government public construction projects such as schools, health, parks and urban renewal will increase, and the optimization of business structure is expected to promote the continuous improvement of the operation quality of the sector. The newly signed contract amount in the infrastructure sector was 205.2 billion yuan, an increase of 23.8% at the same time, 18.5 PCT faster than that from January to February, with a bright growth performance. Orders increased by 20.3% in a single month in March, of which housing construction / infrastructure increased by 12.5% / 43.1% respectively. The steady growth policy promoted the continuation of a high boom in infrastructure business. From January to March, domestic / overseas orders were 818.7 billion yuan / 16.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year change of + 14.6% / – 39.6%. By the end of 2021, the company’s orders on hand totaled 6490.9 billion yuan, 3.4 times the revenue in 2021. The order reserve is abundant, which is expected to ensure the continuous and steady growth of the company’s subsequent revenue.
Investment suggestion: we predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be 56.1/618/68 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 9% / 10% / 10%, EPS will be 1.34/1.47/1.62 yuan / share respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 4.7/4.3/3.9 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the risk of impairment of accounts receivable, the project progress is not up to expectations, the gross profit margin of real estate drops sharply, and the risk of repeated epidemics.
