Under the catalysis of rising prices, oil stocks rose sharply in early trading, and the main funds scrambled to raise two leading funds.
After new year’s day, the international crude oil price started a new round of rise. As of January 12, the light crude oil futures price for February delivery on the New York Stock Exchange closed at US $82.64/barrel, up 1.75%; London Brent crude oil futures for March delivery was US $84.67/barrel, up 1.13%. Both reached a new high in nearly two months. The data released by the U.S. energy information administration on the same day showed that the U.S. commercial crude oil inventory was 413 million barrels last week, a month on month decrease of 4.6 million barrels.
Industry insiders pointed out that the tight supply side is the main factor leading to the rise of oil prices. It is reported that the current policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) is to gradually restore the oil production stopped during the epidemic with a monthly increase of 400000 barrels / day. In fact, due to the disturbance of political factors in OPEC + internal member states and the restriction of budget tightening, OPEC + production increase is limited to a certain extent, and the supply growth is relatively slow.
The continued decline in US crude oil inventories also raised supply concerns. API crude oil inventory decreased by 1077000 barrels in the week of January 7. It is generally expected that the data of the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventory. In addition, it is generally expected that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight. In addition, investors believe that the Fed is not as good as the expected hawks, and the oil price rebounded sharply.
With regard to the oil price trend in 2022, Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) the research report released on January 9 pointed out that OPEC share lost under the background of production reduction. With the rapid recovery of oil price, the national financial pressure of oil producing countries has been significantly reduced. It is debatable whether the motivation to continue production reduction in the future is still urgent. On the one hand, at present, the number of crude oil drilling rigs in the United States has recovered, and there is great room for recovery of future production. On the other hand, the two trend declines in oil prices in 2021 are related to the spread of mutated viruses. If other mutated viruses reappear, if other mutated viruses reappear in 2022, the pessimism will be amplified when the mutated strains are unknown, and the tightening of epidemic prevention measures in various countries may disrupt the recovery rhythm of crude oil demand.
the oil sector led the industry in early trading
This morning, the oil sector led the rise, North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) , Renzhi shares, Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) and other bucked the market. According to the statistics of securities times · databao, “two barrels of oil ” Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) in the morning, the net inflow of main funds exceeded 100 million yuan, and the net inflow of Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) was also more than 100 million yuan.
In 2021, due to the rise of global commodity prices, oil prices continued to soar, and the A-share oil sector also caught fire. In 2021, the cumulative increase of oil index exceeded 20%, far exceeding the Shanghai index in the same period. As of the closing on January 12, the oil index has increased by 5.3% since the new year’s day, Sinopec Shandong Taishan Pectroleum Co.Ltd(000554) , China Oil Hbp Science & Technology.Ltd(002554) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , Geo-Jade Petroleum Corporation(600759) , Shanghai Lonyer Fuels Co.Ltd(603003) and so on. During this period, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) , Sino Geophysical Co.Ltd(300191) , China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) were increased by Beishang capital, but the overall increase amount was not too high.
From the valuation level, as of January 12, the rolling P / E ratio of eight oil stocks was below 20 times. They are China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , North Huajin Chemical Industries Co.Ltd(000059) , Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) , Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited(600688) , Cnooc Energy Technology & Services Limited(600968) , China Petroleum Engineering Corporation(600339) , Oriental Energy Co.Ltd(002221) . China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) the price earnings ratio is 7.55 times, ranking the lowest. Followed by Petrochina Company Limited(601857) , with a rolling P / E ratio of 11.6 times. As of January 12, the value of this stock a stock market did not exceed 900 billion.
On Wednesday, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) released a performance forecast. It is expected that the net profit in 2021 will increase by 71 billion yuan to 75 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, with a year-on-year increase of 374% to 395%, mainly because the company seized the favorable market opportunity, optimized the operation efficiency of the oil and gas industry chain, vigorously implemented quality and efficiency improvement, and achieved a simultaneous increase in the sales of main oil and gas products. According to this performance calculation, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) the net profit in 2021 will exceed 90 billion yuan, the best level in the same period in recent seven years.
Another oil stock Guanghui Energy Co.Ltd(600256) issued a performance forecast on January 4. The company expects a net profit of 4.9 billion yuan to 5.05 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 267% to 278%, creating the best performance in the history of the company since its listing in 2000. The company mentioned in the forecast that the main business products will continue to be prosperous in production and marketing in 2021, including:
LNG: the annual sales volume is expected to increase by about 22% year-on-year, and the sales volume of Qidong trading gas is expected to increase by 25% year-on-year;
Coal: the annual sales volume is expected to increase by about 91% year-on-year (the external sales volume includes raw coal, upgraded coal and some purchased coal);
Methanol: the annual sales volume is expected to increase by about 9% year-on-year;
Coal based oil products: the annual sales volume is expected to increase by about 13% year-on-year.
