The technical strength of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery is in the leading position in the world, and local enterprises have strong competitiveness. Among the top 10 enterprises in China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume in 2021, there are 9 Chinese enterprises.
On January 12, the data released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance showed that in 2021, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery cumulative output was 219.7gwh, a year-on-year increase of 163.4%; The sales volume was 186.0gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 182.3%; The loading volume was 154.5gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 142.8%.
The rapid development of power battery industry is mainly due to the growth of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile industry. According to the data of China Automobile Industry Association, in 2021, the production and sales of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobiles reached 3.545 million and 3.521 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6 times. Due to the strong correlation in the industrial chain, the growth rate of power battery production, sales and loading volume is equivalent to that of new energy vehicles.
In the technical direction, the best-selling models of Tesla China, Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC GM Wuling and other leading enterprises have driven the rapid development of lithium iron phosphate batteries, and the market scale has exceeded that of ternary lithium batteries.
In 2021, the loading capacity of lithium iron phosphate battery was 79.8gwh, a year-on-year increase of 227.4%, accounting for 51.7% of the total loading capacity; The loading volume of ternary battery was 74.3gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 91.3%, accounting for 48.1% of the total loading volume. The two mainstream routes account for 99.8% of the total vehicle loading.
Unlike traditional auto parts enterprises that mainly rely on multinational parts enterprises, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery technology is in the leading position in the world, and local enterprises have strong competitiveness. Among the top 10 enterprises in China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume in 2021, there are 9 Chinese enterprises. Among them, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , China Innovation Airlines (AVIC lithium battery) and Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) are the top four, with market share of 52.1%, 16.2%, 5.9% and 5.2% respectively.
" China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry chain is complete, 70% of the global battery production capacity is in China, and the products are supplied all over the world. Although the United States and Europe are going all out to build the battery industry chain, and there may be some obstacles for Chinese batteries to enter the U.S. market, on the whole, the industrial competitiveness of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery will be difficult to shake in quite a long time." In December 2021, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and professor of Tsinghua University, told the 21st Century Business Herald.
Production expansion in progress
As the development speed of new energy vehicle industry is higher than expected, the industry is facing the problem of insufficient supply of high-quality power batteries in China.
In 2021, senior executives of several new energy vehicle enterprises told 21st Century Business Herald reporters at different times that they were faced with varying degrees of battery supply shortage.
"The shortage of battery supply began to appear in the second quarter of 2021. Now this situation still exists and will continue for some time, mainly because the head battery enterprises are too popular. Everyone is scrambling for Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) batteries and needs to queue up." On January 13, a person from a car company said in an interview with a reporter from the 21st Century Business Herald.
Not only Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , many second tier battery enterprises are also facing the problem of tight production, and there is a considerable gap in the battery industry.
Many industry insiders expressed their views in public that the tight supply of high-quality power batteries is likely to continue until 2025.
Ouyang Minggao predicts that the China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery loading volume will reach about 600gwh in 2025 and 1500-2000gwh in 2030.
In the next few years, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery will show a high demand growth trend. In 2021, many power batteries will actively expand their production capacity to meet the expanding demand.
According to incomplete statistics by the 21st Century Business Herald reporter, in 2021, the planned new capacity of many first and second tier power battery enterprises, including Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , AVIC lithium battery, Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , honeycomb energy, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , will exceed 1000gwh.
The main new production capacity is dominated by first and second tier enterprises, and the investment scale has been expanded, with an investment of more than 10 billion.
The leading enterprise Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is an enterprise for production expansion projects. It is also favored by many local governments all over the country. They all hope that Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) will increase investment. Last August, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) launched a fixed increase of up to 58.2 billion yuan and planned a project with a new capacity of 137 GWH at one go. According to the current public information, the production capacity of Ningde will exceed 600gwh by 2025.
Byd Company Limited(002594) four Freddy battery companies were newly registered in 2021, and the total new capacity will exceed 75gwh. The Byd Company Limited(002594) production capacity reached 65 GWH at the end of last year, is expected to exceed 90 GWH at the end of this year, and the long-term planned production capacity will exceed 200 GWH. However, due to the strong competitive relationship between vehicle enterprises, Byd Company Limited(002594) battery is mainly supplied to Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy vehicles, and the external supply scale of battery is small, which is the main problem on the development of Byd Company Limited(002594) battery.
Second tier battery enterprises such as AVIC lithium, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and honeycomb energy have also made great strides in expanding production capacity.
The capacity of AVIC lithium battery is planned to exceed 500 GWH by 2025, and it is expected to achieve 1000 GWH by 2030; The production capacity of honeycomb energy is planned to be increased from 280gwh to 600gwh in 2025; Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) it is planned to increase the production capacity to 100GWh by the end of 2022, and the production is planned to exceed 50gwh.
The rise of the second echelon
From the development pattern of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery industry in 2021, the head concentration effect of the industry is more obvious.
According to the information released by China automotive power battery industry innovation alliance, in 2021, a total of 58 power battery enterprises in the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automotive market realized loading supporting, a decrease of 13 compared with the same period last year. Among them, the loading volume of the top 3, top 5 and top 10 power battery enterprises accounted for 74.2%, 83.4% and 92.3% of the total loading volume respectively.
The head pattern of the first and second echelons of the whole industry has become more and more clear.
Specifically, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) occupies half of the industry, and its leading position is difficult to shake, Byd Company Limited(002594) follows. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) takes into account ternary and lithium iron phosphate in terms of battery route, and released sodium ion battery in 2021, Byd Company Limited(002594) focuses on blade battery made of lithium iron phosphate material.
The second echelon includes local enterprises such as AVIC lithium battery, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , honeycomb energy, Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) , Tafel, Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and LG new energy, which supplies some ternary batteries to Tesla China.
The emergence of a number of high-quality local enterprises in the second echelon is mainly due to the fact that auto enterprises hope to refer to the parts supply system of the traditional auto industry and expand their own battery supplier system.
For example, besides Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Xiaopeng automobile has incorporated Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) and AVIC lithium battery into its own battery supply system. The main battery supplier of GAC new energy has switched from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to AVIC lithium battery. Volkswagen's battery supply partners in China include Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and A123.
"Automobile enterprises all hope to have one supply and two supply, especially in the key parts, there are mutual checks and balances and mutual substitutes. In case a large supplier falls, the second and third suppliers can immediately top it, and it also prevents a dominant company from creating a particularly large monopoly on the vehicle factory." On January 11, Gong min, head of China Automotive Industry Research at UBS, said in an interview with 21st Century Business Herald.
Among several second-line battery enterprises, several local second-line battery enterprises have their own technical routes. Among them, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) has stronger lithium iron phosphate technology. Volkswagen Group has become the largest shareholder of the company, Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) will enter the battery supply system of Volkswagen Group in the future. Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) also reaped the investment of Daimler, the parent company of Mercedes Benz, and may enter the supply system of Mercedes Benz in the future. Relying on large enterprises is an important support for the future business development of the two companies.
Among several other second-line battery enterprises, AVIC lithium battery and honeycomb energy deserve attention.
In 2021, the loading volume of AVIC lithium battery was 9.05gwh, with a year-on-year increase of 154.9%, and the market share reached 5.9%, ranking third. The rise of AVIC lithium battery is mainly due to GAC AIAN. In addition, it also provides some imagination space with car enterprises such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) , Xiaopeng and Zero run.
The main technical route of AVIC lithium battery is ternary battery, and the scale of lithium iron phosphate is less. However, because the technical route of AVIC lithium battery is very similar to Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , it is also the key target of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) . In 2021, AVIC lithium battery was sued by Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) due to patent issues. The dispute between the two is also related to GAC AIAN's shifting the focus of battery cooperation from Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) to AVIC lithium battery.
Honeycomb energy is a battery enterprise incubated by Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) . In addition to supplying batteries to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , it also cooperates with Dongfeng, Geely Automobile, Zero run automobile and other enterprises. Different from the external view that "Freddy battery = Byd Company Limited(002594) " is often used, there is still a large separation between honeycomb energy and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , which is conducive to developing customers in China.
Although the second-line battery enterprises are coming, the leading position of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) is still very stable.
Gong min believes that the 50% share of head enterprises (i.e. Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) ) has been very stable in the past few years. Moreover, in this process, when they can't take over, they give some relatively low-end and cheap car enterprises to some small enterprises. In this process, new car companies come in. At the beginning, they will give priority to the battery companies in the head. Gradually, some pay more attention to cost and cost performance. Some orders are transferred out, but the whole process is dynamic.
"We can always see that some orders may go out, but the overall share of giant enterprises seems more stable than expected." Gong Min said.
