The sales volume of construction machinery excavators in 2021 was released, with a year-on-year increase of nearly 5% and a year-on-year increase of 39% compared with that in 2020, and the growth rate was significantly downshifted. Excavators are regarded as a "barometer" of infrastructure construction. After several months of decline, China's decline narrowed month on month in December. With the recent issuance of special bonds in advance and the centralized commencement of major projects everywhere, can it bring an opportunity for the recovery of the construction machinery industry?
The financial Associated Press reporter communicated with a number of industry insiders and learned that the prices of main raw materials such as steel fell, and the cost pressure is expected to be relieved; With the "steady growth" policy, since December last year, the startup hours and orders of construction machinery have gradually shown signs of mild improvement, and Q1 sales are expected to improve month on month. However, due to the large base of Q1 in the same period last year, the year-on-year confirmation time window is expected to be postponed to Q2 to Q3.
the decline in China's sales volume in December narrowed month on month
Recently, the sales data of major products in the construction machinery industry in 2021 were released. According to the statistics of 25 excavator manufacturers by China Construction Machinery Industry Association, 24038 excavators of various types were sold in December 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%; Including 15423 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 43.5%; 8615 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 105%.
From January to December 2021, 342784 excavators were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 4.63%; Including 274357 sets in China, a year-on-year decrease of 6.32%; 68427 sets were exported, a year-on-year increase of 97%. From January to December 2021, 140509 loaders were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 7.11%.
Insiders of a construction machinery company in Hunan told the financial associated press that the excavator sales volume in December last year converged greatly compared with that in November. This year, the excavator sales volume in China will decline to a certain extent. On the whole, it will be low before the meeting and high after the meeting. The overseas market can still maintain a substantial growth, which can offset the pressure of the decline of some Chinese sales volume.
According to the data of last year, the sales of construction machinery represented by excavators are "cold inside and hot outside", and the growth rate has significantly "downshifted". A private placement researcher who has been tracking machinery for a long time told the associated press of finance that the downstream of construction machinery is mainly infrastructure and real estate. The outlook of the industry has reached an inflection point since April 2021, and the monthly growth rate has changed from positive to negative, The year-on-year decline in November reached the peak of the year, and there was a signal that the decline narrowed month on month in December. The pessimistic expectation has been reflected in the stock price trend of the secondary market corresponding to the relevant listed companies.
steady growth changes expectations, and Q1 may improve month on month
The issuance time of new special bonds in 2021 is March, and the issuance time of new special bonds in 2022 is earlier. It is generally expected that several trillion yuan of local bonds will be issued in 2022, of which the scale of special bonds is expected to be the same or slightly increased as last year, and the issuance rhythm is higher than that in 2021, so as to better support the growth of infrastructure investment.
In December 2021, the central economic work conference set the tone of "steady growth". From the government work reports released by various localities and the 2022 work plan released by local development and reform commissions, it has become a key task to actively promote the commencement of project construction and ensure the "good start" of investment in the first quarter. The above machinery researchers believe that at present, there are signs of acceleration in the issuance of special bonds of local governments. In order to support the economy, infrastructure is expected to be adjusted against the cycle, so as to drive the demand for construction machinery in China to stabilize. At present, the construction machinery sector is at the bottom of the fundamentals. However, from the long-term perspective, the downward trend of construction machinery has not been reversed. There was an obvious high base effect in the first quarter of last year, and the stage inflection point may appear in the second half of the year.
Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) insiders told the financial associated press that it can be seen that many major projects are gradually started, which will promote the sales of some construction machinery products, but whether it can bring about major changes in the whole industry cycle can not give an accurate prediction at present, but can only be said that there is an expectation of improvement. Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) insiders said that the cross cycle adjustment policy is expected to drive the downstream engineering demand to gradually pick up, so as to boost the performance of the main engine plant of construction machinery, but it will take some time to conduct and digest.
Some insiders believe that under the low base effect in the second half of the year, the growth rate of excavator sales is expected to be positive in the third quarter of 2022. It is estimated that the sales volume of excavators will reach 300000 units in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 12.5%, including 208000 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 25%, and 92000 units exported, a year-on-year increase of 40%.
From the performance of the secondary market, relevant leading companies Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd(601100) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , Zoomlion Heavy Industry Science And Technology Co.Ltd(000157) showed signs of stabilization. According to the analysis of Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , the downward trend of institutional shareholding was behind the previous downward valuation. Taking Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) as an example, the proportion of institutional investors in circulating A shares decreased from 61.64% at the end of 2020 to 45.6% in the third quarter of 2021. During this period, PE decreased from 20.4 times to 12 times. It can be seen that at present, the mechanism is still in a relatively low configuration state for the construction machinery plate. Under the high and low style switching of the market, the downward factors affecting the early prosperity have been digested by the market. The growth attribute of industry leading companies is greater than the cycle attribute. Compared with overseas leading companies, the valuation has room for improvement.
