\u3000\u30001. Long term supply chain problems such as lack of core and shortage of raw materials have the greatest impact on the electronics industry, followed by machinery and chemicals. It can reflect the inventory and cash flow of the enterprise.
\u3000\u30002. The epidemic has a great impact on China’s supply chain in the short term, and the electronic, mechanical equipment, computer, national defense and military industries and chemical industries are relatively affected; The Russian Ukrainian issue has a longer-term impact, which may lead to the structural adjustment of global routes.
\u3000\u30003. The subsequent overweight of broad credit expectation is implemented, and there is no need to be pessimistic in the future market. In terms of style, the growth of value needs to be balanced. Industry allocation, focusing on the combination of new and old drivers of steady growth, real estate and computer in the short term. Inflation chain focuses on Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) chain and oil and gas chain.
Weekly exchange: from the perspective of the company’s announcement, the long-term problems of the supply chain will continue. Since March, the international situation has become increasingly complex and the epidemic has broken out in many places in China, which has an impact on the supply chain of Chinese companies. The company’s supply chain has a direct impact on the company’s operation, which has gradually attracted the attention of the market. This week, combined with the announcement of listed companies, we will analyze the impact of supply chain problems on listed companies from both long-term and short-term perspectives for investors’ reference.
Last week, the cjdi sentiment of the industry was divided, the popularity of textile and clothing and Baijiu rose, and the popularity of the growth sector was at a historical low. As of last Friday, the reading of our sentiment index cjdi (diffusion index) was differentiated, and the whole a cjdi fell to 15%. The observation index used to measure the market width: the readings of Shanghai Composite Index and HS300 rose in April, and the transaction structure was scattered. Under the framework model, the heat of the whole market is down, and the heat of the growth sector is at a historical low, still in the state of “oversold”.
Discussion this week: from the perspective of company announcement, the long-term problems of supply chain will continue. 1) At present, the importance of supply chain issues is prominent, and long-term issues are still the main focus. On the whole, the current long-term problems are more extensive and relatively more important; 2) The long-term impact on the supply chain of chemicals and machinery is the biggest. The increase of inventories and raw materials, the increase of prepayments and the relatively poor cash flow in the early stage may mean that the company is more prepared for supply chain problems; 3) The short-term impact of the supply chain is mainly the tension of the global supply chain caused by the epidemic in China and the situation in Russia and Ukraine, among which the epidemic has a significantly greater impact on China’s supply chain; Electronics, mechanical equipment, computers, national defense industry and chemical industry are relatively affected.
The situation in Russia and Ukraine has a longer-term impact, which may lead to the structural adjustment of global routes and an increase in freight.
Industry configuration: focus on the combination of new and old drivers of “stable growth” in the short term
From a short-term perspective, focus on the combination of new and old drivers of “stable growth”. In the field of old kinetic energy, seize the opportunities of real estate and banks under the marginal correction of real estate, and in the field of new kinetic energy, closely track the computer and communication industries under the overweight of the “digital economy” policy.
Theme allocation: continue to pay attention to the deepening of national reform
The annual management pays great attention to listed state-owned enterprises with equity incentive willingness and scheme.
Risk tips
1. Major adjustments in China’s policies;
2. The situation at home and abroad has changed greatly.
