The market is about to enter the stage of May Day holiday, and investors have to face the problem of “holding shares” or “holding money” during the holiday. What is the attitude of private equity institutions towards this problem?
According to the data of private placement network, 56% of private placement institutions choose to hold heavy positions for the holiday. They believe that the current market has entered a good opportunity for the layout on the left, and each decline is a good opportunity for long-term intervention. Another 36% of private equity chose neutral positions to wait and see, believing that although there is limited room for decline, the power of short-term rise is also insufficient. In addition, there are 8% of private light positions or cash holdings for holidays.
56% of private placement choose to hold heavy positions for the holiday
The market is about to enter the May Day holiday stage. According to the survey data of private placement network, 56% of private placement choose heavy positions. They believe that the market has entered a good opportunity for the left layout, and each decline is a good long-term intervention opportunity. 36% of private placement chose neutral positions to wait and see. They believed that although the falling space was limited, the short-term rising power was also insufficient, and neutral positions could be advanced, attacked and retreated. In the survey, only 8% of private placement short positions or cash holdings for holidays.
For the market trend after the festival, 46% of private placement think it will fluctuate at a low level. The reason is that they think the market risk has been fully released. When the policy bottom has been very clear, there is no possibility of continuous sharp decline. However, due to the lack of market confidence and the impact of holiday uncertainty, the rising conditions still need to be brewing.
In this regard, Liu Zhichao, investment manager of baichuang capital, told the reporter of daily economic news through wechat that he tends to hold stocks for the holiday. At present, the market valuation is at a reasonably low level. On the whole, the company has maintained high position operation, and is optimistic about the auto parts industry benefiting from the relief of the epidemic, the resumption of work and production, the consumer industry benefiting from the recovery of consumption scenes driven by infrastructure, and some stocks with undervalued value and high dividends that are less affected by the epidemic.
In the view of Li Shiyu of Guangdong Xiaoyu investment, at the current market point, it is blindly short. Once there is a wave of continuous rebound in the market, it may be empty. Li Shiyu told reporters on wechat that at present, there can not be too many positions, so it involves the balance of positions. As for why we can’t blindly look short now, it’s because the current market adjustment point is really very low. “Below 3000 points, I think the market belongs to the short luring stage. You must hold a certain position below 3000 points, and activists can hold 30-50% positions, but not more than half positions for the time being. The rebound market is likely to come at any time with the landing of the first quarterly report and the landing of the Fed’s interest rate hike in early May!”
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told reporters on wechat that driven by market sentiment, the recent market adjustment is relatively large and urgent, and there is a certain chance of rebound in technology, so there is no need for panic position reduction. At the same time, there are many favorable policies this week. There is the possibility of favorable policies around May Day, which will provide support for the market. Excluding major bad news beyond expectations, the market has little chance of sharp decline in the short term. Of course, ordinary investors should not blindly increase their positions, because although the policy bottom is basically established, it may take some time for the market bottom to be suppressed by uncertainties such as China’s epidemic, overseas geographical conflicts and the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve.
Wang Panfeng, investment manager of Oriental marathon, told reporters that the market fluctuated greatly recently, especially the adjustment range of small and medium-sized innovation sector was greater. On the premise of meeting the risk control requirements, we will maintain the operation of medium and high positions. For some high-quality companies with large short-term decline, we will increase the allocation in due time based on the valuation. We believe that the most pessimistic time in the market should have passed, and the epidemic situation concerned by the market has continued to improve. For high-quality companies with certainty and reasonable valuation, we will continue to hold or even increase our positions.
the most pessimistic situation has passed, and the market after the holiday is worth looking forward to
What is the attitude of private equity bosses towards the post holiday market? Beijing Xingshi investment told reporters that it is of little significance to choose cash holdings in the short term. It may be a better choice to look a little longer. At present, the market is in the period of confidence recovery. Due to the limited new positive information and the uncertain factors that suppress the stock market sentiment in the early stage have not been completely solved, the investor sentiment and confidence are always hovering at the bottom, and the stock market may fluctuate a lot in the short term. From a medium-term perspective, the market has now entered the value range. The price earnings ratio valuation of most sectors in the market is at a reasonably low level, with good medium and long-term investment value, especially consumer assets with reasonable valuation.
Looking back, epidemic prevention and control and “stable growth” are still the key. In an environment with relatively sufficient policy space, economic stabilization is a matter of high probability. On the one hand, on the whole, China’s epidemic continues to show positive changes, the number of newly infected people in Shanghai continues to decline, the resumption of production and work in various regions is also advancing, and the impact of the epidemic on the supply chain is weakening. On the other hand, China’s policies have been continuously strengthened. The central financial and Economic Commission requires to comprehensively strengthen infrastructure construction. The policy effect in the early stage will gradually appear, and China’s economic fundamentals will be marginally improved in the follow-up. When the epidemic situation subsides further and high-frequency economic data confirm the effect of resumption of work, market sentiment and pessimistic expectations are expected to be reversed. At that time, the stock market may usher in a trend upward and the medium and long-term value of assets will be realized.
BOC investment said that the sharp fluctuations in the market since this year were mainly caused by multiple factors such as the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Fed’s interest rate hike and the spread of the epidemic. In the short term, we continue to be cautious about the economy and the market, and the market volatility may continue. However, from the long-term perspective, the current market risk is not large. First of all, the valuation of all A-Shares has fallen below the 20% quantile level since 2000, at a relatively low level in history. The current stock market price has reflected investors’ very pessimistic expectations to a certain extent.
In the future, the government may adjust some policies under economic pressure to protect the economy and stabilize market confidence. The attraction of China’s medium and long-term capital market is increasing. As for when the economy and market will stabilize, we need to pay close attention to the evolution of the epidemic and the policy signals of the Politburo meeting at the end of April. From the perspective of the whole year, we judge that the economic trend will be low in the front and high in the back. With the policy force, it will become more obvious in the next few months, and the market’s macro expectations will gradually improve. Market confidence is gradually restored, and market fluctuations also provide more investment opportunities with high risk return and cost performance. If the future epidemic or external negative factors continue to ferment, leading to further decline in the market, it is a better time point to increase positions.
Yuan Huaming, general manager of Huahui Chuangfu investment, told reporters that if the marginal improvement of overseas geographical conflicts, the control of China’s epidemic situation and the introduction of more favorable policies for stable growth before and after May Day, the market sentiment will improve, and the short-term market bottom may be formed. Whether the market can rebound from a short-term to a long-term reversal needs the support of China’s economic stabilization driven by the steady growth policy.
On the whole, the current market uncertainty is still prominent. It is a more suitable investment strategy for ordinary investors to see more and do less. The opportunity after the direction is determined is easier to grasp. There are structural opportunities in some industries driven by the steady growth policy in the market, which is worthy of investors’ continuous attention and grasp the opportunities for layout.
Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, said that the market has fallen sharply recently. Judging from the growth, valuation level, profitability and other comprehensive factors of excellent global companies, in fact, the valuation of many high-quality listed companies in China has been very attractive. Recently, the management has placed special emphasis on guiding market expectations and stabilizing market confidence, which is equivalent to drawing a bottom line for the capital market to a considerable extent. We believe that the most pessimistic situation in the capital market may have passed, and the market after the May Day holiday should be expected.
38% of private placement are optimistic about this opportunity of steady growth
For the next main line, the survey data of private placement network show that there are obvious differences in private placement. 38% of private placement are optimistic about the main line of undervalued value and stable growth of medium and large market value, 33% are optimistic about small and medium-sized market value stocks and growth styles with more recent decline, and another 29% are optimistic about white horse stocks represented by large consumption leaders.
Li Shiyu of Guangdong Xiaoyu investment told reporters that the moderates suggested to focus on the consumption of blue chips, and the radicals looked for various theme concept opportunities with favorable policies. Optimistic about the current market of consumer stocks, as well as real estate small demon stocks, infrastructure and water conservancy concept stocks driven by favorable policies, which are the respective choices of steady and radical investors.
BOC investment said that in the short term, under the current major changes in fundamentals at home and abroad, it is expected that there is still room to strengthen follow-up policies, and the steady growth sector is the direction that can be focused on at present; In addition, the left layout strategy can also be adopted for the relevant themes adjusted due to “poor expectation” in the early stage. We pay special attention to the specific advantages of the company in terms of cost and brand layout. Including: consumer goods with considerable product pricing ability; New energy vehicle brand with strong product strength; Auto parts and intelligent driving areas with great room for improvement in penetration.
Liu Yan, chairman of anjue assets, told reporters that in terms of investment, we should first consider the new energy sector. After a long period of sharp decline, at present, many stocks on these early popular tracks have reached single digit P / E ratio, and the price has been very attractive. Moreover, the construction of new energy is just starting in the world, and there is still great development potential in the future. In addition, finance, infrastructure, large consumer industries and export-oriented economic recovery sectors that are absolutely undervalued are all worthy of attention after the festival.
Wang Panfeng, investment manager of Oriental marathon, said that we are optimistic about investment opportunities in the new Internet economy, science and technology manufacturing, consumption, medical devices, chemical industry and other sectors. First, expanding domestic demand has become the core driving force of China’s economy and a ballast and stabilizer to resist external uncertainty. At present, the economy is weak at different stages and the consumption is hierarchical. However, it can be seen that even if there is disturbance from the epidemic, the sales of high-end Baijiu is generally normal, and the demand for liquor in peak seasons is unabated, so the certainty is very strong; For the science and technology manufacturing sector, we focus on the allocation of enterprises with global comparative advantages. Most of the supply chain is in China and the demand is oriented to the global manufacturing industry. They are assets with irreplaceable demand, benefiting from China’s efficient organization ability, and the supply can quickly respond to the global recovery demand.
In addition, for the medical and health sector, after drastic adjustment of share price, we believe that the sector will usher in significant investment opportunities. In terms of innovative medicine sector, enterprises with innovation ability and internationalization ability are optimistic about highlighting the bottom value; In terms of equipment, we are optimistic about innovative and platform enterprises, with prominent long-term value; In terms of R & D service sector (CXO), we are optimistic about the platform service provider whose technology can continue to lead, but the overall valuation is still too expensive, so we need to wait patiently.
In addition, there is the Internet new economy sector. Internet companies showed rapid growth from 2020 to early 2021, and their share prices also had a high rate of return. However, with the normalization of life after the epidemic, China’s macro consumer economy has declined, the overall management of the Internet has become stricter, the supervision of data and security has been strengthened, and the restrictive policies for various segments of the Internet industry have been issued. The profit growth rate of the overall Internet company has decreased, and the Internet sector has begun to callback significantly. Looking forward to the next three years from the current time point, the share prices of some high-quality Internet new economy enterprises are very attractive, and some high-quality enterprises have been increasing their share repurchases recently, actively adapting to the new era and embracing new changes.
