On April 29, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) asset management released an exclusive interview with Tao Geng, vice chairman and President of the company on the official wechat. Tao Geng said that from the medium and long-term perspective, the sharp volatility of the short-term index may create long-term buying points. The recent panic decline may be the most important timing opportunity in the next year or two.
According to Tao Geng, since Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) asset management obtained the public fund business license in April 2021, according to the company’s development strategy of building an all-round wealth management organization, it has made key layout in the research of equity investment and given priority to the establishment of an investment research integration system driven by buyer research, Build an investment and research culture of “in-depth research first, research promoting investment and investment nurturing research” and “rational investment and diversified styles”.
equity investment and research personnel training focuses on five abilities
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) asset management pays attention to the construction of investment and research team. It not only actively introduces external talents, but also independently builds investment and research echelons. Tao Geng said that in the training system of equity investment and research personnel of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) asset management, the focus will be on five important abilities: one is the ability of individual stock selection, which is the necessary ability and basic skill of investment and research personnel; Second, the ability to grasp the hot topics. The hot spots in the capital market rotate rapidly and the investment themes are wonderful. Investment researchers should be able to look for and seize the opportunities with strong certainty through forward-looking vision and in-depth research; Third, the ability of industry allocation. Different industries will enter different development stages with the economic cycle. Investment researchers should be able to conduct comprehensive and in-depth research and tracking on the industrial cycle and the profit distribution of the industrial chain, so as to make accurate “track” allocation. Fourth, the ability of style rotation. The style rotation of the capital market has long-term characteristics. Investment and research personnel should be able to closely track the market trend and follow the trend. Fifth, timing ability. We should seize the timing opportunity of the market and adjust the position of the portfolio in time on the basis of analyzing the policy, fundamentals, capital and psychology.
Tao Geng pointed out that the equity investment of Guojun asset management is based on in-depth research, and the top-down macro and strategy should be combined with the bottom-up individual stock research. An excellent fund manager needs to strive to grasp both alpha and beta in his own ability circle.
short-term index volatility may create long-term buying points
For the recent market, Tao Geng said that 2022 is a macro year, and the market trend since the beginning of the year shows the importance of timing. At present, although there is still the possibility of repeated bottom grinding in the short term, it is not appropriate to be overly bearish on the whole. From the medium and long-term perspective, the sharp volatility of the short-term index may create long-term buying points, and the recent panic decline may bring the most important timing opportunity in the next year or two.
From the perspective of policy, Tao Geng stressed that the policy’s support for the real economy is increasing. Now and for some time in the future, while ensuring the orderly progress of epidemic prevention and control, the policy is expected to make efforts in many aspects.
“From a psychological point of view, the short-term rapid decline of the stock market and the sharp contraction of market trading all show that the market panic has reached its extreme.” Tao Geng believes that the core logic of the rising trend of A-Shares has not been disturbed.
In terms of fundamentals, Tao Geng said that the current valuation level of all A-Shares (excluding financial, petroleum and petrochemical) has fallen to 22 times, close to the average valuation level of 20 times at the bottom of many times. The strong support line of A-share market – the 20-year average of Shanghai stock index basically reflects the long-term real level of China’s macro economy. This moving average has been successfully held in any harsh environment in the past and has not effectively fallen below.
Finally, Tao Geng stressed that the equity investment and research system of Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) asset management adheres to the in-depth research of macro, strategy and individual stocks, and will continue to strive to create greater value for investors.
