Core view
Review: on January 3, 2022, "it's the turn of big finance" began. The whole market developed its own style and recommended "big finance" (banks and real estate), on January 16, "retreat or attack, rely on big finance", on February 6, "big finance, continue to cut", and on March 6, "a new round of upward attack of big finance". It continued to emphasize that "big finance" was the winner and loser of 2022 investment. It seemed to be defensive, but in fact it was the best attack. In the first quarter, real estate and banks, Ranked among the top three gainers, the latest changes in fund positions confirm the foresight and correctness of our views. On April 17, take over: it's the turn for big consumption began to take a clear-cut stand, emphasizing that "big consumption" is about to usher in buying points. Looking ahead, the "big finance" on the left hand and "big consumption" on the right hand are the best combination in 2022.
Strategic view in May: at present, the external economy is at a high level, our economy is at a low level, and the dislocation of economic fundamentals is the largest stage. The external market is closing, we are releasing, the exchange rate expectation pressure is high, the stock market stock game, and the liquidity is pessimistic. Looking forward to the next 1-2 quarters, the market is getting better and better. Cherish the "cheap time" in the current bottom area, and A-Shares are expected to meet the counter offensive moment of "Normandy landing" and "infinite scenery in dangerous peaks".
First, in terms of economic fundamentals, the comparative advantage of China's economy will return. At present, China's fundamentals are hovering at the bottom and Europe and the United States are at the peak. If the epidemic situation in China improves in the second half of the year, the supply chain recovers, and overseas crosses the recovery peak, China's economy will run upward, while overseas will run downward, and our comparative advantage is expected to return.
Second, the profits of enterprises are expected to gradually recover. In the past 20 years, the downward cycle of A-share earnings has been 6-8 quarters. In the second and third quarters of this year or at the end of A-share performance, it will gradually improve in the fourth quarter.
Third, at the liquidity level, the market liquidity in the first half of the year was poor for two reasons: 1) the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and funds returned to the United States; 2) The market decline since the beginning of the year has put pressure on the issuance of public funds, and some absolute income products have also reduced their positions. In the case of less incremental funds, the market showed the trend of stock game in the whole first half of the year. Looking back, if the Fed does not make a more "Eagle" statement in the follow-up, with the prominent comparative advantages of China's economy, overseas funds may return to emerging markets again, especially the Chinese market with significant medium and long-term allocation value.
Investment suggestion: gradually welcome the "big consumption" buying point. At present, it has entered the comfortable area of cost performance, odds and winning rate. Three levels of large-scale consumption can be concerned: ① post real estate cycle (home furnishings, household appliances and consumer building materials), ② service consumption (social services, airports, consumer medical care and media advertising), and ③ traditional consumer goods (mass consumer goods, Baijiu, pigs, etc.).
For "big finance" (banks and real estate): the short-term rise is too fast and too urgent, the stock game, the impact of events and twists and turns. However, the steady growth policy will be strengthened, and the "big finance" market is still expected to take advantage of the high-quality target of adjusting the layout fundamentals.
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Risk tips: geopolitical tensions have intensified, the duration of the epidemic has exceeded expectations, and China's policies have been adjusted
