In April 2022, the index fluctuated and retreated. The gem index showed that the monthly K line was negative for five consecutive months, and the individual stock sector fell more and rose less. Affected by the geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve accelerating the recovery of market liquidity, the repeated disturbance of the Chinese epidemic and other internal and external factors, the three indexes fluctuated and fell unilaterally, and the Shanghai index once fell below 2900 points. However, near the end of the month, the political Bureau released positive policy signals, the three indexes bottomed out and rebounded, the Shanghai index recovered 3000 points, and the trend of the index stabilized. However, from the perspective of the whole month, it still shows a sharp correction trend, the overall situation is still relatively depressed, and the correction range of gem is the largest. As of April 29, the monthly K line of Shanghai stock index fell 6.31%, the monthly K line of Shenzhen composite index fell 9.05%, and the monthly K line of gem index fell 12.80%. Individual stocks fell more and rose less. Only the food and beverage sector closed up, while the computer, power equipment, environmental protection, mechanical equipment, medicine and biology and other sectors led the decline.
Market Research and judgment in May 2022: shock recovery can be expected. From the market environment in May, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be implemented. We pay attention to the latest statement of the interest rate meeting. The Chinese epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the pace of economic recovery and increased the pressure on short-term economic growth. However, the Politburo meeting in April stressed to strengthen macro policy regulation, stabilize the economy and release positive signals, which will help stabilize the economy in the second quarter. Recent meetings of both the central bank and the national Standing Committee have focused on "stable growth". All parties have actively set the tone to further consolidate the "policy bottom", gradually reverse market expectations and enhance market confidence. In terms of funds, although the probability of total easing of monetary policy is small, structural fine-tuning is still the direction. In particular, the central bank's reduction of reserve requirements and the reduction of foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will bring marginal improvement in funds. From the technical point of view, the market shock correction in April showed a sluggish performance. However, at the current time point, we should not be too pessimistic about the market situation in May. The release of short-term selling pressure in the market is coming to an end, and the rebound momentum is also increasing. With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation and the successive implementation of political stability and economic policies, the "policy bottom" is gradually consolidated, and the superposition of funds is moderately improved. It is expected that the market is expected to gradually shake and repair, Usher in the opportunity of recovery.
It is suggested that the k-share index should be moderately adjusted to the negative direction in 2024, and the k-share index should be actively adjusted to the negative direction in 2024. Affected by the geopolitical events in Russia and Ukraine, the US Federal Reserve accelerating the recovery of market liquidity, the repeated disturbance of the Chinese epidemic and other internal and external factors, the three indexes fluctuated and fell unilaterally, and the Shanghai index once fell below 2900 points. However, near the end of the month, the political Bureau released positive policy signals, the three indexes bottomed out and rebounded, the Shanghai index recovered 3000 points, and the trend of the index stabilized. However, from the perspective of the whole month, it still shows a sharp correction trend, the overall situation is still relatively depressed, and the correction range of gem is the largest. As of April 29, the monthly K line of Shanghai stock index fell 6.31%, the monthly K line of Shenzhen composite index fell 9.05%, and the monthly K line of gem index fell 12.80%. Individual stocks fell more and rose less. Only the food and beverage sector closed up, while the computer, power equipment, environmental protection, mechanical equipment, medicine and biology and other sectors led the decline.
Market Research and judgment in May 2022: shock recovery can be expected. From the market environment in May, the Fed's interest rate hike is expected to be implemented. We pay attention to the latest statement of the interest rate meeting. The Chinese epidemic has repeatedly disturbed the pace of economic recovery and increased the pressure on short-term economic growth. However, the Politburo meeting in April stressed to strengthen macro policy regulation, stabilize the economy and release positive signals, which will help stabilize the economy in the second quarter. Recent meetings of both the central bank and the national Standing Committee have focused on "stable growth". All parties have actively set the tone to further consolidate the "policy bottom", gradually reverse market expectations and enhance market confidence. In terms of funds, although the probability of total easing of monetary policy is small, structural fine-tuning is still the direction. In particular, the central bank's reduction of reserve requirements and the reduction of foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will bring marginal improvement in funds. From the technical point of view, the market shock correction in April showed a sluggish performance. However, at the current time point, we should not be too pessimistic about the market situation in May. The release of short-term selling pressure in the market is coming to an end, and the rebound momentum is also increasing. With the continuous improvement of the epidemic situation and the successive implementation of political stability and economic policies, the "policy bottom" is gradually consolidated, and the superposition of funds is moderately improved. It is expected that the market is expected to gradually shake and repair, Usher in the opportunity of recovery.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to be moderately positive, pay attention to the direction of policy force and the opportunity of oversold and high boom sector in the early stage. It is suggested to pay attention to finance, architectural decoration, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, TMT, chemical industry, medicine and other sectors.
Industry configuration: over allocation of finance, building decoration, building materials and household appliances. Considering the market, fundamentals and other factors, we believe that in terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to over allocate in May: finance, building decoration, building materials, household appliances, etc.
Risk tip: China's epidemic has repeatedly hindered economic development and further increased the downward pressure on the economy; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, driving the high price of bulk commodities, increasing the cost pressure of enterprises, and the profits of industrial manufacturing were continuously compressed. And the opportunity of oversold high boom sector in the early stage. It is suggested to pay attention to finance, architectural decoration, building materials, household appliances, food and beverage, TMT, chemical industry, medicine and other sectors.
Industry configuration: over allocation of finance, building decoration, building materials and household appliances. Considering the market, fundamentals and other factors, we believe that in terms of industry allocation, it is recommended to over allocate in May: finance, building decoration, building materials, household appliances, etc.
Risk tip: China's epidemic has repeatedly hindered economic development and further increased the downward pressure on the economy; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, driving the high price of bulk commodities, increasing the cost pressure of enterprises, and the profits of industrial manufacturing were continuously compressed.
