Event overview
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on April 29 to analyze and study the current economic situation and economic work and review the national talent development plan during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Core view
Situation judgment and economic work requirements:
The meeting pointed out that stabilizing growth, employment and prices are facing new challenges, and the risk challenges are mainly due to the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic and the crisis in Ukraine. requirement:
1) in terms of epidemic prevention and control, "adhere to dynamic clearing", and emphasize the need to minimize the impact of the epidemic on economic and social development. At present, China has accumulated prevention and control experience in dealing with Omicron and other mutant strains. It is expected that the subsequent choice of epidemic prevention policies will be more rapid, accurate and flexible, so as to avoid strong interference to the economy as far as possible.
2) in terms of economic work, it is emphasized to stabilize the economy, strive to achieve the expected objectives of economic and social development throughout the year, and maintain the economic operation within a reasonable range. If we do not adjust economic targets due to interference factors and short-term pressure and demonstrate our determination to stabilize growth, we will strengthen policies and urge the implementation of them; It is conducive to stabilizing and boosting market confidence.
Macro policy:
It is emphasized that we should strengthen macro policy adjustment: accelerate the implementation of the determined policies and pay close attention to planning incremental policy tools. Fiscal policy: it is required to implement policies such as tax rebate, tax reduction and fee reduction. In this year's government work report, it is estimated that the annual tax rebate and tax reduction is about 2.5 trillion yuan. Since the beginning of the year, more than 20 tax support policies have been issued, including the continuation of the tax reduction and fee reduction policies for manufacturing, small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households, and the implementation of large-scale retention tax rebate.
Monetary policy: the meeting mentioned "making good use of all kinds of monetary policy tools". Since the beginning of this year, the central bank has continued the loose trend in monetary policy. On January 17, the medium-term lending facility (MLF) and seven-day reverse repo interest rate were reduced by 10bp, and on April 25, the deposit reserve ratio was comprehensively reduced by 0.25%, releasing about 530 billion yuan of long-term funds. At the same time, the central bank has also made continuous efforts in structural monetary policy tools such as refinancing, including the continuous promotion of small refinancing for agricultural support and two carbon reduction tools, 100 billion refinancing in the field of transportation and logistics, the creation of 200 billion yuan of scientific and technological innovation refinancing and 40 billion yuan of inclusive pension refinancing.
An important starting point for "steady growth": Comprehensively Strengthening infrastructure construction
At the meeting of the central financial and Economic Commission on April 26, it was pointed out that we should strengthen the construction of network infrastructure such as transportation, energy and water conservancy, broaden long-term financing channels and increase financial investment. According to our previous special report, the annual investment plans of major projects and departments in various regions have exceeded 11 trillion yuan; In terms of funds, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure accelerated in the first quarter, with the issuance of new special bonds of about 1.25 trillion yuan. The project reserves are sufficient and the funds are available quickly. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) will reach about 12% in the whole year, and the growth rate of full caliber infrastructure will rise to more than 15%.
Important industries and industrial policies:
Real estate: adhere to the positioning of "housing without speculation", support all localities to improve real estate policies based on local conditions, and support rigid and improved housing demand. According to our previous report, since the beginning of this year, many places across the country have relaxed the purchase and sale restriction policy, reduced the proportion of down payment and reduced the mortgage interest rate. Due to the implementation of urban policies, the relaxation policy of the real estate market has been issued. It is expected that the subsequent local real estate policy will be relaxed and overweight, and the real estate investment and sales are expected to gradually stabilize and recover.
Platform Economy: the meeting stressed the need to promote the healthy development of platform economy, complete special rectification of platform economy, implement normalized supervision, and introduce specific measures to support the standardized and healthy development of platform economy. It is expected that the company will standardize or further improve the economic development of the platform, which will help the healthy development of the market.
Summary:
With the current round of Shanghai epidemic gradually and effectively controlled, the economy returned to normal. Under the general principle of epidemic prevention and control, we will improve and optimize strategies, increase the strength of macro policies, promote the healthy recovery and development of relevant fields through industrial and industrial policies, and form an effective physical workload through infrastructure. In the future, economic growth is expected to gradually rise to near the annual target.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic or policy changes exceeded expectations.
