According to Russian finance minister silvianov, Russia's oil production may fall by about 17% this year. Since the war between Russia and Ukraine, the production of crude oil has been widely concerned by Russia and Ukraine. According to the IEA April report, Russia's output in March was 10 million barrels per day. After three consecutive months of no production increase from December 2021 to February 2022, there was a month on month decrease of 50000 barrels per day, but the war had little impact on crude oil production in March.
According to Reuters calculation, the oil loading capacity of Western ports in Russia increased by 420000 barrels / day to 2.34 million barrels / day in April, and the export increased instead of falling in April. We believe that, on the one hand, the United States, Britain and other countries set an exemption period for the export ban on April 20 to increase imports before the end of the exemption period. On the other hand, traders said that it was a trade agreement reached before the implementation of the Russian Ukrainian war, However, Trafigura, Russia's main oil buyer, said: "the company will fully comply with all applicable sanctions and is expected to further reduce the volume of oil trade with Russia from May 15".
In addition, shell said on April 7 that it would stop buying Russian oil on the spot market, but for the contract signed before the Russian Ukrainian war, the company is legally obliged to receive the delivery of Russian oil, and shell defines the refined oil mixed with 50% or more of Russian oil as the oil of Russian origin. If the proportion of diesel and other oil products containing Russian oil is 49.9% or less, such transactions are not limited, but on April 27, Shell said it would no longer accept refined oil mixed with products of Russian origin.
We believe that the impact of the war on the production and export of Russian crude oil will gradually appear from May.
News 1: Russian finance minister silvianov: Russia's oil production may fall by about 17% this year.
News 2: according to Reuters calculation, the oil loading capacity of western Russian ports increased by 420000 barrels per day in April to 2.34 million barrels per day, which is in line with the loading plan.
News 3: shell. N will no longer accept refined oil mixed with products of Russian origin.
News 4: ExxonMobil (XOM. N): Exxon neftegas, a Russian subsidiary, announced that Sakhalin 1, an oil and gas production project, had suffered force majeure and had reduced the crude oil production of the project. News 5: EIA report: US China crude oil production remained at 11.9 million barrels / day last week.
News 6: EIA report: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 2.91 million barrels to 553.1 million barrels last week, a decrease of 0.52%. SPR destocking rate was about 400000 barrels / day.
The production capacity cycle has triggered great energy inflation, and we continue to be optimistic about the historic allocation opportunities of energy resources such as crude oil. We believe that whether it is traditional oil and gas resources or American shale oil, capital expenditure is the main reason for limiting crude oil production. Considering that the global capital expenditure on crude oil is insufficient for a long time, the elasticity of global crude oil supply will decline. In the transformation of old and new energy sources, the demand for crude oil is still growing, and the world will face the problem of crude oil shortage for many years. The international oil price will usher in an upward turning point in 2022. In the medium and long term, the oil price will remain high for a long time, and the energy resources are expected to be in an upward cycle in the next 3-5 years. We will continue to be firmly optimistic about this round of energy inflation, Continue to be firmly optimistic about the historic allocation opportunities of energy resources such as crude oil under the capacity cycle.
Risk factors: the risk of re spread of covid-19 epidemic in the world; New energy sources increase the risk of replacing traditional oil demand; Risk of OPEC + alliance modifying production plan; The risk that OPEC + oil producing countries have insufficient production capacity and the production rate is lower than expected; The United States lifted sanctions against Iran, and the risk of Iran's crude oil returning to the market quickly; The risk of US policy adjustment on shale oil production, environmental protection and financing; Risk of global 2050 net zero emission policy adjustment
