The trend of food and beverage is weaker than the market. As of March 31, 2022, the SW food and beverage index fell by 16.5%, the component of wandequan a index fell by 9.9%, and the sector underperformed the market by 6.6pct. In terms of molecular industry, in 2022q1, SW Baijiu /sw condiment /sw food comprehensive /sw soft drink /sw beer /sw dairy /sw meat products decreased by 21.4%/20.6%/17.8%/17.6%/15%/9.6%/5.1% respectively.
In 2022q1, the proportion of fund heavy positions in the food and beverage industry in the stock market value of the whole industry decreased by 1.28pct month on month. As of March 31, 2022, the market value of institutional heavy positions in this quarter was 3.2 trillion, and the market value of food and beverage heavy positions was 435.5 billion, accounting for 13.5% of the total market value of heavy positions in the whole industry, with a month on month decrease of 1.28 PCT.
The heavyweight stocks of the top 20 funds in the food and beverage industry accounted for 98%. In 2022q1, the top 1-4 “maowu Lufen” heavy warehouse accounted for 70.25%, with a slight increase of + 0.2pct month on month. The top 1-10 accounted for 89.5%, and the top 8 remained unchanged. The ranking of Tsingtao Beer rose from No. 10 to No. 9, Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) into the top 10 Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) rose from 14th to 12th, and Fu Jian Anjoy Foods Co.Ltd(603345) rebounded from 19th to 15th Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) , China Resources beer, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) ranking declined.
Maowu Luzhou Fenzhou Liquor Co., Ltd. is equipped as standard, and the position of Baijiu is stable. In 2022q1, the position of Baijiu was 363.2 billion yuan, accounting for 84.6% of the food and beverage industry, with a slight decrease of 0.37pct on a ring basis. Among them, maowu Lufen national first-line liquor is basically the standard allocation of major institutions. After the correction of Maotai share price, the institutions slightly increased their positions by 7% in 2022q1 and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) reduced their holdings by 8% month on month. In terms of national secondary high-end liquor, the holdings of Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) decreased by 10% month on month, and Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) changed little. However, after Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) continuous position increase in 2021, the pace of 2022q1 slowed down and the holdings increased by 35% month on month. In terms of Hui liquor, Gujing and Anhui Kouzi Distillery Co.Ltd(603589) respectively reduced their holdings by 25% and 2% month on month, and yingjiagong increased their holdings by 96% month on month. In terms of Suzhou wine, Yanghe and Jiangsu King’S Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603369) increased their holdings by 7% and 27% month on month respectively.
The short-term performance of beer is restricted, and the market is optimistic in the medium and long term. In 2022q1, the beer position was 17.2 billion yuan, accounting for 4% of the food and beverage industry, with a month on month decrease of 0.78 PCT. At present, the competition pattern of the beer industry is relatively clear and stable, and the main logic of high-end has not been broken. The market is optimistic about its business model of scale effect + brand premium. In 2022q1, due to the repeated outbreaks in China and the rise of raw material prices, the market has some concerns about the short-term performance of the beer industry. The heavy beer and run beer with overestimated value were reduced by 21% and 30% month on month respectively. It is noteworthy that Tsingtao Beer’s H-share valuation has a high cost performance, and the institution increased its holdings by 14% month on month.
Under the risk aversion of funds, institutions increase positions to fight inflation + just need attribute targets. In 2022q1, the position of dairy products was 31.1 billion yuan, accounting for 7.2% of the food and beverage industry, with a month on month increase of 0.95pct. Dairy products have strong rigid demand attribute, have anti inflation ability, and the demand is limited under the epidemic. The consumption scene has not been destroyed. Dairy giant Yili increased its holdings by 5% month on month. Similarly, from the perspective of capital hedging, Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , Qiaqia and Shuanghui, which have strong demand attributes, are favored by institutions, increasing their holdings by 106%, 45% and 37% month on month respectively. Anji significantly increased its holdings by 122% month on month, and Jue Wei reduced its holdings by 59% month on month, falling out of the top 20. In 2022q1, the condiment position was 4.6 billion yuan, accounting for 1.1% of the food and beverage industry, Haitian holdings decreased by 4% month on month, and Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) holdings decreased by 54% month on month.
Risk factors: repeated covid-19 epidemic; Food safety risk
