\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 258 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) )
The company released the 22q1 performance report: the 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 1.212 billion yuan / – 4.64%, the net profit attributable to the parent company was -232 million yuan, and a loss of 182 million yuan in the same period of 21 years; The non deduction performance of 22q1 was – 259 million, with a loss of 190 million yuan in the same period last year, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. The total cash flow generated from operating activities was 106 million yuan / – 47.11%, mainly due to the decline in operating income due to the impact of the epidemic; At the same time, the number of hotels expropriated due to the epidemic increased, and the recovery of expropriated funds was slow, resulting in a significant reduction in cash inflow from operating activities.
RevPAR recovered to 62.8% in the same period of 19 years, and the average house price decreased by 3% compared with 19q1, maintaining good resilience. 1) Overall operating data: 6 Haoxiangni Health Food Co.Ltd(002582) 2q1 overall RevPAR decreased by 10.5% year-on-year, returning to q162.5% in 19 years 8% (directly converted according to the absolute value disclosed in 19q1). The overall OCC of the company’s 22q1 hotel is 49.2% / yoy-6.3pct, and the average house price is 174 / yoy + 3.0%, which is only 3% lower than that of 19q1. The price remains relatively resilient. 2) From the perspective of spin off: RevPAR of economy hotels is restored to 61.9%, and that of medium and high-end hotels is restored to 57.5%; RevPAR of lightly managed hotels decreased by 17.3% year-on-year (19q1 company has not yet separated the operation of cloud hotels).
Store opening growth: 190 new stores were opened in 22q1, and the structure was improved month on month, with 1827 pipeline stores and 36 stores higher than that in 21q4.
1) increase in the proportion of medium and high-end new stores: the number of new stores opened by 22q1 company is 190 (184 in 21q1), and the structure of new stores has been optimized month on month. Among them, medium and high-end new stores account for 30% (16 in 21q4), and light management hotels account for 53.2% (76 in 21q4); The net increase in the number of hotels was 77 (113 closed).
2) the number of pipelines is close to the highest in history: as of 22q1, the company has signed 1827 stores that have not opened or are signing contracts, with a net increase of 36 stores compared with 21q4 (of which 21q3 has reached a record high of 1838). In the structure of pipeline hotels, economy hotels accounted for 17% (the same as 21q4), medium and high-end hotels accounted for 29.6% (the same as -0.8pct) and light management accounted for 52.9% (the same as + 0.9pct).
3) hotel structure: as of 22q1, the company’s economy hotels accounted for 38%, medium and high-end hotels accounted for 23.8% (increased by 0.4pct compared with 21q4), and light management hotels accounted for 29.6% (increased by 0.9pct compared with 21q4); Direct stores accounted for 12.4% (12.7% at the end of 21).
The company’s recovery progress is under pressure, and the company’s investment performance is suggested to be disturbed in the short term. The proportion of medium and high-end in the new store structure of 22q1 company has increased month on month, and pipeline is close to the highest value in history, laying the foundation for opening stores throughout the year. As a just need for travel, the hotel is expected to take the lead in repairing after the epidemic is controlled in the future. It is optimistic that the operation of the company will gradually pick up. Considering that the epidemic in China has not been completely controlled, the annual performance expectation is temporarily revised down. It is expected that the company’s performance in 22-24 years will be RMB 59 / 827 / 1018 million respectively, with the corresponding growth rate of 6.8% / 1290% / 23% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to pe31x in 23 years.
Risk warning: covid-19 epidemic situation is repeated, macroeconomic fluctuation risk and travel policy change risk
