\u3000\u30 Shenzhen Quanxinhao Co.Ltd(000007) 99 Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the revenue was 3.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.97%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 893 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 81.75%. The revenue of 21q4 was 775 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.81%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 173 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 7.82%. 22q1 revenue was 1.688 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.04%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 521 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 95.56%.
Internal reference drunkard double high growth, strengthen terminal construction and promote nationalization. In 2021, the company’s liquor business revenue was 3.403 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 86.87%. In terms of products, the revenue of internal reference series / wine series ghost series / Xiangquan series / other series was 10.34/19.15/176279 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 80.71% / + 88.94% / + 11.71% / + 255.92% respectively. By region, China’s / foreign revenue was + 86.33% / + 683.77% year-on-year respectively. While the product series is extended up and down to cover the mainstream price band, the large single product plan is successfully implemented, which shines brightly in both high-end and sub high-end markets. The internal reference series has a solid high-end positioning with the help of rich and diverse marketing activities and stable price increase and capacity expansion; The drunkard series defines the secondary high-end positioning, accurately sets the product segmentation, and distinguishes hongtan 18 and hongtan 20 to correspond to the rapid growth of the volume in and outside the province. In 2021, the company’s core terminal outlets reached 19752, with a year-on-year increase of 137%. The market coverage of prefecture level cities in China is 67%, and that of county-level cities in Hunan is 94%. The channel innovation model has achieved remarkable results, with 590 stores nationwide, a year-on-year increase of 134%.
Structural upgrading will boost gross profit and gradually optimize costs. In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company’s liquor business was 80.03%, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.06pct. In terms of products, the gross profit margin of internal reference series / liquor series was 92.09% / 79.45% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.32pct / + 0.08pct. The internal reference series maintained high gross profit. The sales expense ratio / management expense ratio was 25.18% / 5.34% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.98pct / – 2.94pct respectively, while 22q1 decreased to 21.82% / 1.73% respectively. The cost optimization effect in the first quarter was obvious. Overall, the net interest rate in 2021 was 26.17%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.75pct; 22q1 further increased to 30.85%, and the profitability was significantly improved. At the end of 2021, the contract liabilities were 1.382 billion yuan, an increase of 663 million yuan year-on-year; 22q1 contract liabilities were 675 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.18%, and revenue + △ contract liabilities were 981 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 27.40%. The company’s contract liabilities have sufficient stamina.
Brand building is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people, and the national layout is progressing smoothly. Brand side, unique and clear positioning, strong communication and significant value improvement. By participating in the China Central Television brand power project, holding a seminar on the value of high-end cultural Baijiu with internal participation, and making an in-depth attempt to integrate marketing with media interaction, we have successfully adhered to the brand cultural positioning, continuously refreshed the brand exposure, endowed new brand value, and realized deep connection and interaction with consumers. At the channel end, the sinking effect in the province is obvious, and the county-level market coverage reaches 94%. The construction of core terminal outlets outside the province is increased to create a model breakthrough. The internal reference series sales company continues to attract high-quality dealers with a flexible sales mechanism. The drunkard series distribution system is improved, the offensive is strong, and the channel control is increasing day by day. At the same time, it actively innovates the channel mode, the exclusive store channel has achieved initial results, and the online channel has grown rapidly. With the continuous deepening of the large single product plan and the increased penetration of markets inside and outside the province, the strong potential of the company is expected to continue.
Investment suggestion: it is estimated that the company’s earnings per share from 2022 to 2024 will be 4.18 yuan, 5.76 yuan and 7.53 yuan, and the target price will be 202 yuan, corresponding to 2023pe of 35x, maintaining the Buy-A rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation affects the terminal movable pin; Intensified market competition; The development outside the province is unfavorable.
