\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Events
On the evening of April 28, 2022, the company released the first quarterly report of 2022: the revenue of 2022q1 was 3.833 billion yuan (with an increase of 17%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million yuan (with an increase of 15%), and the non net profit deducted was 335 million yuan (with an increase of 15.5%).
The performance exceeded expectations, and the rise of raw materials affected the gross profit margin
The company’s 2022q1 revenue was 3.833 billion yuan (with an increase of 17%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million yuan (with an increase of 15%), and the non net profit deducted was 335 million yuan (with an increase of 15.5%), and the performance exceeded expectations. The gross profit margin of 2022q1 is 47.7% (with a decrease of 2.3pct), which is caused by the rise in the cost of raw materials. The company will effectively control the cost. The net profit margin was 17.9% (the same as minus 1PCT), mainly due to the decline of gross profit margin. At the end of 2022q1, the contract liabilities were 1.841 billion yuan, an increase of 1.1pct month on month and 230 million yuan year on year. Wusu, 1664 and other product combinations rely on 76 big cities for large-scale production.
The overall volume and price rise together, and Wusu continues to make efforts
In terms of products, the revenue of high-end products in 2022q1 was 1.374 billion yuan (with an increase of 24%), accounting for 36.6% (with an increase of 2pct). High-end beer benefited from the planned continuous expansion of big cities and the continuous expansion of Wusu outside Xinjiang. It is expected that the sales volume of Wusu will increase in double digits. Considering the price increase of Wusu last year, we believe that Wusu is still the main driving force of high-end beer. The revenue of mainstream products was 1.991 billion yuan (with an increase of 13%), accounting for 52.96% (with a decrease of 1.7 PCT). The revenue of economic products was 395 million yuan (+ 12.84%), accounting for 10.50% (-0.38pct). From the perspective of volume and price, the beer sales volume in 2022q1 is 794200 kiloliters (with an increase of 11.7%), and the corresponding ton price is 4826 yuan / kiloliter (with an increase of 4.9%).
In terms of subregions, the northwest region in 2022q1 is 1.196 billion yuan (with an increase of 14%), accounting for 32% (with a decrease of 0.8pct). The revenue of the central region was 1.661 billion yuan (with an increase of 21%), accounting for 44% (with an increase of 1.4pct). The revenue of the southern region was 904 million yuan (with an increase of 14%), accounting for 24% (with a decrease of 0.6pct). The subregion benefited from the active market strategy and the promotion of emerging channels during the Spring Festival.
By channel, the direct sales revenue in 2022q1 was 14 million yuan (15.6% less than the same period), accounting for 0.4% (0.2pct less than the same period). The distribution revenue was 3.746 billion yuan (with an increase of 17%), accounting for 99.6% (with an increase of 0.2pct). By the end of 2022q1, there were 3096 dealers, with a net decrease of 416, which is the problem of the company’s statistical caliber.
Wusu drives the high-end process and focuses on the ending year of “sailing 22”
In 2021, relying on the brand combination of “international high-end brand + local strong brand”, the company launched a series of new products, including “summer fun”, “Loulan secret brew” and so on. Since December 2020, the company has completed a major asset restructuring project with Carlsberg. Its production network has increased from 14 holding (participating) wineries in three provinces to 26 holding (participating) wineries in nine provinces. Its core market has expanded from Chongqing, Sichuan and Hunan to Xinjiang, Ningxia, Yunnan, Guangdong and East China, realized national layout and promoted the opening of national space for products.
2022 is the year when the company’s Yangfan 22 strategy ends. The company has released Yangfan 27 strategy on February 3, 2022. In 2021, we believe that the company needs to continue to pay attention to the following five points: 1) brand connection of Chongqing in 2022. At the same time, it will continue to accelerate the process of high-end products, and continuously promote the high-end brand through the single product combination of medium and high-end products and above. 2) Continue to promote high-end products in the core market and consolidate the share of core beer; Big cities plan to continue to accelerate expansion, optimize product mix in some key markets and strengthen implementation; Promote the digitization of sales channels. 3) E-commerce will use platform big data to develop new flavors and new packaging, accelerate product innovation iteration, and significantly increase the proportion of e-commerce special products. 4) In terms of traditional retail, the company will quickly promote the business growth of small formats of non current beverage channels, continue to maintain the sales growth of large formats and current beverage channels, and further increase the market share. 5) In terms of supply chain, the company will further break the bottleneck of production capacity and realize the principle of nearby supply of products. Focus on optimizing the bottle return network to improve the bottle return rate.
Profit forecast
We are optimistic about the continuous release of performance under the company’s high-end + National Space and product structure optimization. It is estimated that the EPS from 2022 to 2024 will be 2.90/3.64/4.36 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 44 / 35 / 29 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risks, epidemic drag on consumption, lower than expected sales in peak season, lower than expected price increase, lower than expected growth in USSR, rise in raw materials, etc.
