\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 705 Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) )
2022q1 export sales grew steadily, optimistic about the profit recovery under the relief of cost pressure, and maintained the “buy” rating
In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 14.912 billion yuan (+ 13.05%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 792 million yuan (- 29.15%). The revenue growth of 2021q4 / 2022q1 was + 3.26% / + 13.46% year on year respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent was – 5.24% / + 4.60% year on year respectively, and the net profit not attributable to the parent was + 58.6% / – 11.71% year on year respectively. The non recurring profit and loss of 2022q1 mainly came from the difference of investment income such as forward foreign exchange. Considering that the cost of raw materials is still high, we lowered the profit forecast for 20222023 and added the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit of the company in 20222024 will be 963 / 1175 / 1366 million yuan (the original value in 20222023 will be 1004 / 1272 million yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 1.17/1.42/1.65 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 12.9/10.5/9.1 times respectively. We are optimistic about the tariff exemption and the decline of sea freight for a long time to stabilize export orders, The decline in raw material prices led to profit restoration and maintained the “buy” rating.
2021q4 new products have boosted domestic sales, and 2022q1 export sales have recovered steady growth
In terms of domestic sales, the revenue in 2021 was 32.89% (+ 9.03%), of which the revenue in 2021q4 / 2022q1 was + 28.91% / + 3% year-on-year respectively. In terms of brands, the domestic sales revenue of 2021q4 moffy / Dongling / other businesses was + 16.41% / + 2.3% / + 58.7% respectively year-on-year. The domestic sales of 2021q4 warmed up to a large extent or was driven by the new products of moffy and other brands. In the whole year, the multi category revenue accounted for about 10%. In terms of export sales, the revenue in 2021 was 11.624 billion yuan (+ 14.24%), of which the revenue in 2021q4 / 2022q1 was – 3.7% / + 17% year-on-year respectively. Looking forward to 2022, tariff exemption and sea freight will fall, and export orders may remain stable. It is optimistic that domestic sales will continue to promote innovation and boost long-term growth.
The performance in 2021 is under short-term pressure, and the cost improvement and efficiency increase drive the marginal repair of profitability in 2022q1
In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 17.61% (- 5.71%). Under the same caliber, the gross profit margin of 2021q4 / 2022q1 was -3.68pcts / – 2.42pcts year-on-year respectively. The decline in 2022q1 was narrowed month on month or the price of products was adjusted. On the expense side, the ratio of sales / management / R & D / financial expenses in 2021q4 was -0.4pcts / – 0.95pcts / – 0.18pcts / – 2.7pcts respectively year-on-year, and that in 2022q1 was -0.68pcts / – 1.14pcts / + 0.37pcts / + 0.29pcts respectively year-on-year. The overall effect of expense control was good. Under the comprehensive influence, the non net interest rate deducted in 2021 was -2.49pcts year-on-year, and the non net interest rate deducted in 2022q1 was + 0.57pcts month on month.
Risk tip: RMB exchange rate fluctuates sharply; Decline in overseas demand; Rising prices of raw materials, etc.
