\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 557 Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) )
Event: the company disclosed the first quarterly report of 2022. 1q22 achieved a revenue of 1.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 3.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%, and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 2.6%; The net cash flow from operating activities was - 80 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 128.5%. The overall performance is in line with expectations.
Key points supporting rating
Due to the superposition of seasonal factors and the influence of high base, 1q21 performance increased slightly. (1) As the Spring Festival moves forward in 2022, we calculate that the sales time of 1q22 annual goods Festival is about 7-10 days less than that of the same period last year, and some shipments of 1q22 annual goods Festival are reflected in 4q21. Under the influence of seasonal factors and high base before the Spring Festival, the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased slightly, which was in line with our expectations as a whole. (2) If the fourth quarter and the first quarter are combined, the 4q21 + 1q22 revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 17.1% and 14.6% respectively over the same period of the previous year, continuing the performance growth of the annual report. (3) The price increase was conducted smoothly and the profit margin increased slightly. The gross profit rate of the company reached q230.2% year on year; The net interest rate was 14.5%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.2pct. We judged that the price increase of melon seed products was conducted smoothly, driving a slight increase in profit margin. The overall expense rate of the company remained stable, with a year-on-year sales expense rate of - 0.1pct, a year-on-year flat management expense rate and a year-on-year R & D expense rate of - 0.1%.
Sunflower seeds are expected to be flat year-on-year and nuts are expected to increase. In terms of products, we judge that the sunflower seed base in the first quarter is high and the sales are basically flat. The nut category has achieved rapid growth driven by 5-day packaging, roof gift box, group purchase and new products.
Outlook: the growth rate in the second quarter is expected to rebound significantly, and it is expected to achieve rapid growth in 2022. (1) In the second quarter, the epidemic spread at many points to promote home consumption, superimposing the impact of price increase, we judge that the growth rate of melon seed income is expected to increase month on month. (2) The 2q21 base is low, and the 2q22 performance growth of the company is expected to rebound significantly after the seasonal factors weaken. (3) Looking forward to the whole year, we believe that the company will continue to improve its channels, product structure upgrading, brand communication and operation efficiency, and we are optimistic that the company will achieve rapid growth in 2022.
Valuation
We maintain the previous profit forecast, and expect the EPS of 22-24 years to be 2.15, 2.49 and 2.86 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 17.4%, + 15.6% and + 15.0%, maintaining the buy rating.
Main risks of rating
The promotion of new products is less than expected, the cost of raw materials fluctuates, and food safety problems.
