\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 304 Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 25.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.1%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.51 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.3%, and a deduction of non net profit of 7.37 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 30.4%. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 13.03 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 23.8%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.99 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.1%, and a deduction of non net profit of 4.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 28.5%. In addition, the company’s revenue target will increase by more than 15% in 2022.
The market outside the province has increased rapidly and the nationalization has been consolidated. In terms of regions, in 2021, the company achieved revenue of RMB 11.80/13.55 billion in the provincial / external markets respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.1/22.0%. The province benefited from the driving force of more than 500 yuan in the mainstream price belt, and M6 + volume led to a high increase in revenue. Benefiting from the company’s channel reform outside the province, the process of nationalization has been continuously consolidated. Combined with the number of dealers, 1691 new dealers will be added and 2600 fewer dealers will be added in 2021, the channel structure will continue to be optimized, the market price and channel profits will be relatively stable, and the medium and long-term sound development of energy storage will be achieved.
Product upgrading and profitability improvement. In terms of gross profit margin, the company’s gross profit margin increased significantly in 2021, reaching 75.3%, with an increase of 3.0 PCTs. In the first quarter of 2022, the gross profit margin was 77.3%, with an increase of 1.1 PCTs, mainly due to the continuous upgrading of product structure, the good sales of blue classic series terminals, the gradual development of dream 6 + province into large circulating items, the gradual entry of crystal dream and the new version of sky blue into the right track, and the continuous optimization of the company’s product matrix. In terms of expense ratio, the annual sales / management expense ratio of the company in 2021 was 14.0% / 7.2% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 1.6 / – 1.0pcts respectively; In 2022q1, the expense ratio continued to decline, in which the sales / management expense ratio was + 0.3 / – 0.6pct year-on-year respectively.
The 14th five year plan has a smooth start and is optimistic about the long-term development of the company. In the early years of the 14th five year plan, under the leadership of the new management, the company exceeded the target of rapid revenue growth of 10% at the beginning of the year. In the future, under the background of multi factor resonance, the company’s potential energy is expected to be further improved: 1) product side: the high-end product M6 + has an obvious advantage of large volume at the price of Tian Jin Bohai Chemical Co.Ltd(600800) yuan, and the M3 crystal version will follow M6 + to complete the product introduction. It is expected that the subsequent dream blue series will steadily increase the proportion of revenue; 2) Channel side: at present, the channel adjustment in the province has been nearly completed. It is expected that with the market order back on track, the company’s profit margin is expected to be improved. In addition, the implementation of the employee stock ownership plan further improves the enthusiasm of internal employees. We are optimistic about the continuous upgrading of the company’s product structure and the continuous optimization of channel structure in the future.
Investment suggestion: considering the repeated impact of the epidemic, we slightly adjusted the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 and introduced the profit forecast for 2024. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 9.68/11.91/13.99 billion yuan (the original forecast value was 9.82/11.48 billion yuan from 2020 to 2023), with a year-on-year increase of + 29% / + 22% / 18%. The current stock price corresponds to 23 / 18 / 16 times of PE from 2022 to 2024. We are optimistic about the company’s future product upgrading and brand potential, and maintain the “buy” rating
Risk warning: market competition intensifies the risk; The company’s channel development progress is lower than expected; Epidemic affected terminal movable pin
