\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 985 China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) )
Event:
China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) release the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022:
1) in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 62.367 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 8.038 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.07%; In 2021q4, the revenue was 16.246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.94%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.8%.
2) 2022q1: the company achieved a revenue of 17.099 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.78% (after adjustment, the same below), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.884 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.25%.
Key investment points:
The nuclear power business grew steadily, and the revenue of photovoltaic business doubled. In 2021, the company’s revenue increased by 19.3% year-on-year, mainly because the on grid power increased by 19.11% year-on-year, and the on grid power of nuclear power / wind power / photovoltaic increased by 17.1% / 39.1% / 110.6% year-on-year. In terms of business, the revenue of nuclear power business was 56.56 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and the kWh revenue was 0.350 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%; The revenue of wind power business was 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.1%, and the kWh revenue was 0.405 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 7.2%; The revenue of photovoltaic business was 2.85 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.5%, and the kWh revenue was 0.582 yuan / kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5%.
Exchange gains increased and net profit thickened. In 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company was 34.07%, higher than the growth rate of revenue, mainly because the financial expense rate decreased by 2.3pct (the exchange gain on foreign currency borrowings increased by 633 million yuan to 832 million yuan due to changes in foreign exchange rate). In 2021, the gross profit margin of the company was 44.19%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.6pct, mainly due to the provision of spent fuel disposal fee and medium and low-level radioactive waste disposal fee for two new units in the current period compared with the same period of the previous year. In terms of business, in 2021, the company’s gross profit of nuclear power / wind power / photovoltaic was 24.23/10.3/1.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.4% / 35.7% / 62.3%, and the gross profit of kWh was 0.150/0.234/0.358 yuan / kWh, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.0% / 2.5% / 22.9% respectively.
Both volume and price increased + the number of nuclear power unit overhauls decreased, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2022q1 was + 53% year-on-year.
1) both volume and price increased, and the revenue in 2022q1 increased by 22.8% year-on-year. In terms of power generation, the total power generation in 2022q1 increased by 15.5% year-on-year, of which nuclear power / photovoltaic / wind power increased by 14.0% / 55.1% / 22.2% respectively. Among them, the power generation of nuclear power units still maintained a rapid growth, mainly because the power generation of Jiangsu nuclear power unit 6 (newly put into operation in June 2021) and the number of overhaul of nuclear power units of the company decreased year-on-year. In terms of electricity price, the kWh income in 2022q1 is 0.385 yuan / kWh, an increase of 6.7% year-on-year and 3.1% month on month. In terms of installed capacity, by the end of March 2022, the company’s nuclear power in operation and assembly capacity was 23.71gw, an increase of 1.16gw compared with the end of last year (New Fuqing unit 6 was connected to the grid); New energy holdings has an installed capacity of 8.87gw, including wind power / photovoltaic 2.63/6.24gw; Holding 2.07gw of installed capacity under construction, including 0.27/1.8gw of wind power / photovoltaic.
2) in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 53.3% year-on-year, significantly higher than the revenue growth. The net interest rate reached 31.35%, up 7.2pct year-on-year, a record high. We believe that it is mainly due to the increase of on grid electricity price of nuclear power units and the decrease of overhaul quantity of nuclear power units in this period.
Profit forecast and investment rating: under the background of rising electricity price, the company’s nuclear power business is expected to increase both volume and price in 2022; As the only new energy industry platform of CNNC, the new energy business is expected to take over nuclear power and become a new growth point of the company during the 14th Five Year Plan period. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be RMB 11.097/11.886/13.075 billion respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 11.29/10.54/9.58 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: electricity price decline; The progress of nuclear power construction is less than expected; Risk of policy change; The installed capacity of Fengguang was less than expected.
