\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 809 Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 19.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.75%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 5.314 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.56%. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.62%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 3.710 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.03%.
21q4 actively controlled the volume and ended the year smoothly. On the basis of overfulfilling the tasks in the first three quarters, the company controlled the delivery in the fourth quarter and strictly adopted the quota system. The annual revenue was 19.97 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 42.8%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 72.6%. In terms of products, Fen Liquor / Series liquor / prepared liquor achieved revenue of 17.92/6.4/1.25 billion yuan respectively in 21 years, with a year-on-year change of + 41.9% / + 12.7% / 91.4% respectively. In terms of subregions, the income in the province was 8.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.6%, the income outside the province was 11.74 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.5%, and the growth rate of the southern market was bright, with an average increase of more than 60%. The income outside the province accounted for 58.8%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.6pct. In 21 years, the number of dealers inside and outside the province was 728 and 2796 respectively, with an increase of 83 and 545 respectively. It is expected that the channel fineness will continue to improve, the number of controllable terminal outlets will make a breakthrough, and the marketing network will be further expanded. The average volume of individual dealers inside and outside the province was 11.09 million yuan and 4.2 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 19% and 20% respectively.
The first quarter of the year was a good start, and the net interest rate increased significantly. In the first quarter of 2012, the company achieved a revenue of 10.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.6%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 70.0%, which was consistent with the previous forecast. The gross profit margin in the first quarter was 74.75%, an increase of 1.21pct year-on-year, mainly due to the heavy volume of high-end products Renaissance and Qing 20. Due to the impact of the epidemic, some sales expenses were put in, and the sales expenses decreased by 10.8% year-on-year. In the first quarter, the net interest rate attributable to the parent company reached 35.23%, a significant increase of 5.47pct compared with the same period last year.
The revival edition has entered a large-scale period, and the blue and white series continue to enhance the brand power. After preliminary preparation and publicity, the company increased the launch of the revival version this year. In Shanxi, consumers highly recognize the high-end products of Fenjiu. In addition, the company has increased the development and group purchase operation of large enterprises, and the Fuxing version has squeezed the market share of other competitive products with a price of 1000 yuan, consolidating its competitive advantage; In Henan, Shandong and other base markets, Qing 20 is already a best-selling product, and the revival version also has a certain self-reliance rate at the terminal; In the southern market, Fuxing version has gradually introduced high-quality terminals, with rich profits in all links of the channel and established a high-end brand image. Although the wholesale price of Fuxing version fluctuates slightly during the peak Spring Festival season, the current wholesale price has picked up and continues to be optimistic that Fuxing version will become another important brand in the 1000 yuan price belt.
Reform continued to deepen and structural upgrading released profit elasticity. After the reform of the chairman of the board of directors of the state-owned enterprises, the marketing ability of the company has been significantly improved from the selection of young cadres to the promotion of the new market; Layout new production capacity at the production end, strengthen the coordination of production, supply and marketing under the epidemic situation, and ensure supply; Fenjiu has been leading in the sales of e-commerce channels, and will pay more attention to the operation of Fenjiu e-commerce in the future. In the case of the company’s strong regulation of the supply side in the past 22 years, it is expected that the proportion of blue and white series will increase significantly and the profit elasticity is expected to be released. Even if the epidemic affects some consumption scenes, Fen Liquor is still one of the brands most willing to pay. After the epidemic, it is expected to continue the high-speed growth trend and successfully complete the business plan of revenue growth of about 25%.
The reform dividend was continuously released, the nationalization and high-end were progressing smoothly, and the “overweight” rating was maintained. The company’s performance in the first quarter of 22 years is bright and the growth momentum is good. It is estimated that the company’s operating revenue in 22-24 years will be 27.121/34.358/41.572 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.60/108.62/13.518 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 6.61/8.90/11.08 yuan respectively, corresponding to the current share price PE of 41.17x/30.55x/24.55x, maintaining the rating of “overweight”.
Risk tip: the industry competition intensifies, the national expansion is less than expected, and the high-end process is less than expected
