\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) Tsingtao Brewery Company Limited(600600) 600)
Event: the company achieved revenue of 9.208 billion yuan in 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of 3.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.126 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.20%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was RMB 1.022 billion, a year-on-year increase of 17.14%.
In March, the epidemic caused Q1 sales to decline, and high-end + price increase continued to push up the average price. In 2022q1, the company achieved a sales volume of 2.219 million kiloliters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%. From January to February, the company achieved positive growth in sales, but in March, the covid-19 pneumonia epidemic in China was sporadic, especially in Shanghai, Shandong, northeast and other places, resulting in a decline in sales. In 2022q1, the company’s revenue per ton of wine increased by 6.10% year-on-year to 4325 yuan / kiloliter, mainly due to: (1) in the first quarter, the sales volume of Qingdao’s main brands reached 1.304 million kiloliters, an increase of 5.1% year-on-year, accounting for 4.6 PCT to 61.2% of the company’s overall sales volume year-on-year, and continued to promote structural upgrading; (2) At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, the prices of some products were raised successively. In the first quarter, the transmission was good, and the price increase bonus was reflected in the statement end. Looking forward to the second quarter, the epidemic situation in Shanghai in April is still severe, and the epidemic situation is sporadic in many parts of the country. It is expected that the company’s sales will still be negatively affected. We continue to emphasize that the core logic of the company is that high-end will drive the continuous improvement of revenue per ton of wine, so as to promote the release of profit elasticity. For the sales volume fluctuation caused by the repeated short-term epidemic, we should treat it rationally and stick to the logic of increasing the medium and long-term net interest rate.
In the first quarter, the cost pressure was high and the sales expense rate was well controlled. The cost per ton of wine of 2022q1 company increased by 6.91% year-on-year to 2688 yuan / kiloliter, mainly due to the increase of cost. On the one hand, the prices of cans and cartons at the end of packaging materials rose sharply, and new bottles also showed a slight upward trend; On the other hand, the price of barley in raw materials rose year-on-year. The cost base of 2021q1 company is low, and the cost of 2021q2-4 has gradually increased since then. Considering the base number, we expect the rise in the cost per ton of wine of 2022q1 company to be the highest in the whole year, and the rise in the cost per ton of wine in subsequent quarters is expected to narrow. As the increase of the cost per ton of wine exceeded the increase of the price per ton, the gross profit margin of 2022q1 company decreased by 0.47 PCT to 37.85% year-on-year. We expect that the average price in subsequent quarters will continue to maintain strong growth. At the same time, the increase of the cost per ton of wine will slow down, and the year-on-year decrease of the gross profit margin is expected to narrow or even increase. In 2022q1, the rates of sales, management and financial expenses of the company increased from -1.25, + 0.06 and + 0.16 PCT to 14.20%, 3.86% and – 0.67% respectively year-on-year. The decrease in sales expense rate is mainly due to the decrease in promotion fees linked to sales, while the company’s revenue maintained growth. Overall, in 2022q1, the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 0.78 PCT to 12.23% year-on-year.
Profit forecast: with the acceleration of the company’s high-end process and the superposition of cost driven price increases, ASP will maintain rapid growth in 2022. In 2022, the cost side is still facing upward pressure, and the company is expected to digest it through the increase of average price and positive cost reduction and efficiency increase. Although the short-term epidemic has repeatedly affected beer sales, the logic of profit release driven by the increase of average price remains unchanged, and the company continues to be optimistic about the high-end of the company. We estimate that the company’s revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 33.234 billion yuan, 35.564 billion yuan and 37.888 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.525 billion yuan, 4.648 billion yuan and 6.090 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 2.58, 3.41 and 4.46 yuan respectively, corresponding to 32 times, 24 times and 19 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: repeated global epidemics and slowdown of global economic growth; Food safety risks; Decline in sales due to irresistible factors; The deterioration of market competition has brought unexpected promotional activities
