\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 985 Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) )
Event: the first quarter report released on the evening of April 28, 2022 said that the net profit attributable to the owner of the parent company in the first quarter was 1.621 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.29%; The operating revenue was 17.912 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 41.91%; The basic earnings per share was 0.65 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.18%.
The volume and price of coal business increased simultaneously to promote the release of performance. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s coal output was 6025100 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.44%, and the coal sales volume was 5187500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.36%. In the first quarter, the revenue per ton of coal was 1133.6 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 59.5%, and the cost per ton of coal was 628.1 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. The gross profit of coal business was 2.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 89.68%, and the gross profit margin was 44.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4 percentage points.
The price rise of chemicals decreased and the cost rose. In the first quarter of 2022, the company produced 877700 tons of coke, a year-on-year decrease of 19.73%, sold 925700 tons of coke, a year-on-year decrease of 14.7%, and the average sales price was 291598 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 23.87%; 83200 tons of methanol were produced, a year-on-year decrease of 26.5%; 76700 tons of methanol were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 31.88%, and the average sales price was 238993 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 19.12%. In terms of cost, the purchase volume of washed coal was 1.956 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.29%, and the purchase price was 202483 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 61.92%.
There is sufficient space for coal and chemical expansion. In terms of coal, according to the announcement of the company on February 19, 2022, Chengda mining, a subsidiary of the company, received the reply of the national development and Reform Commission on the approval of taohutu coal mine project in narinhe mining area, Inner Mongolia, and plans to build an 8 million T / a mine, which means that the equity capacity of the company is expected to increase by 4.19 million T / a (the company holds 51% equity of Chengda mining), and Xinhu coal mine is expected to continue to contribute to the increase of output. In terms of chemical industry, the company’s comprehensive utilization of coke oven gas to methanol project (500000 T / a) will be completed and put into operation in June 2022. At the same time, the construction of comprehensive utilization of methanol project ( Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a ethanol) will be accelerated, and there is a large space for capacity expansion of chemical business.
Coal prices are expected to remain high, driving the release of the company’s performance. Since 2022, affected by the recovery of overseas epidemic and overseas geopolitics, the price advantage of overseas coking coal has weakened and lost the supplement of imported coal. The supply of China’s coking coal market may continue to be tight. The current epidemic has suppressed some downstream demand, but the price is still high. After the epidemic is effectively controlled in the future, the demand will be released and the price still has room to rise. According to wind data, since the second quarter, the price of Huaibei coking clean coal has increased by 195 yuan / ton to 2395 yuan / ton, up 54% from the average price of 21q2. In terms of thermal coal, the price center of the long-term association has increased from 535 yuan / ton to 675 yuan / ton, an increase of 26%, which is expected to drive the price increase of the company’s thermal coal.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.002 billion yuan, 7.567 billion yuan and 8.156 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS of 2.82/3.05/3.29 respectively, and PE of the stock price on April 28, 2022 of 5 times, 5 times and 4 times respectively. The company has the growth ability that is relatively scarce in the current sector, and is expected to obtain higher valuation and maintain the “recommended” rating.
Risk tip: the coal price fell more than expected, the profit of the newly put into production capacity was less than expected, and the construction progress of the newly approved capacity was slower than expected.
