\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Events
On the evening of April 28, 2022, the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the revenue in 2021 was 66.209 billion yuan (an increase of 15.5% at the same time); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan (with an increase of 17.2%); Deduct non net profit of 23.328 billion yuan (with an increase of 16.7%). In 2022q1, the revenue was 27.548 billion yuan (with an increase of 13.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan (with an increase of 16%), and the non net profit deducted was 10.842 billion yuan (with an increase of 16.4%).
Key investment points
The first quarterly report was in line with expectations
The company’s revenue in 2021 was 66.209 billion yuan (with an increase of 15.5%); The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan (with an increase of 17.2%); Deduct non net profit of 23.328 billion yuan (with an increase of 16.7%). Among them, the revenue of 2021q4 was 16.488 billion yuan (an increase of 11.2%) and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.05 billion yuan (an increase of 11.8%); Deduct RMB 6.042 billion (an increase of 11.7% at the same time). In 2022q1, the revenue was 27.548 billion yuan (with an increase of 13.3%), the net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan (with an increase of 16%), and the non net profit deducted was 10.842 billion yuan (with an increase of 16.4%). The gross profit margin in 2021 was 75.4% (with an increase of 1.2pct), of which the gross profit margin in 2021q4 was 75.6% (with an increase of 2.5pct), and the gross profit margin in 2022q1 was 78.4% (with an increase of 2pct), which was caused by the adjustment and optimization of product structure; The net interest rate is 37.02% (+ 0.54pct), of which 38.4% (with an increase of 0.1pct) in 2021q4 and 41.3% (with an increase of 1.5pct) in 2022q1, and the overall profitability is gradually improved. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2021 was 26.775 billion yuan (an increase of 82% at the same time), mainly due to the following reasons: 1) the cash base received from the sale of goods and the provision of labor services in the same period of 2020 was low due to the epidemic; 2) In 2021, the increase of operating income and cash receipt due to bank acceptance bills increased the cash inflow from operating activities this year. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2022q1 was – 3.4 billion yuan (the same decrease of 162%), which was due to the combined impact of the company’s reduction in collection (35% the same decrease in 2022q1) by reducing the proportion of cash collection in advance collection and optimizing order plan management under the influence of the epidemic and the high amount of cash collection due from bank acceptance bills in the same period of last year. The contractual liabilities in 2022q1 were 3.6 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 9.35 billion yuan and a year-on-year decrease of 1.4 billion yuan.
During the 14th Five Year Plan period, the group achieved the development goal of “5111”: 1) breaking into the world’s top 500; 2) The sales revenue of the main business of the wine industry has exceeded 100 billion; 3) The sales revenue of diversified industries has exceeded 100 billion; Strive to build a world-class wine enterprise with excellent products, excellent brands, leading innovation and modern governance. The joint stock company has achieved the development goal of “2118”: 1) the production capacity of raw wine has reached 200000 tons; 2) The storage capacity of base liquor reaches 1 million tons; 3) Sales revenue exceeded 100 billion; 4) The total profit reached 80 billion yuan. Business objective for 2022: the total operating revenue will continue to maintain a double-digit steady growth.
Throughout the year, the volume and price continued to rise, and the proportion of series wines continued to increase
By product, in 2021, the revenue of alcohol was 61.732 billion yuan (with an increase of 18%), accounting for 93.2% (with an increase of 1.8 PCT), and the gross profit margin was 80.3% (basically the same); The revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products was 49.112 billion yuan (with an increase of 11.5%), accounting for 74.2% (with a decrease of 2.7 PCT), and the gross profit margin was 85.6% (with an increase of 0.6 PCT); The revenue of series liquor products was 12.62 billion yuan (with an increase of 51%), accounting for 19% (with an increase of 4.5pct), and the gross profit margin was 60% (with an increase of 4pct). The proportion of series liquor continued to increase. The revenue of plastic products is 2.509 billion yuan (with a decrease of 3%), accounting for 4% (with a decrease of 1PCT); Printing revenue was 138 million yuan (with an increase of 1%), accounting for 0.2%; The revenue of glass bottles was 136 million yuan (23% less than the same period), accounting for 0.2%; the revenue of other businesses was 1.694 billion yuan (15% less than the same period), accounting for 2.6%. In terms of volume and price, the total sales volume of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products in 2021 was 29200 tons (3.8% more than the same period), and the corresponding ton price was 1.6817 million yuan / ton (7.4% more than the same period); The total sales volume of series liquor products was 152600 tons (with an increase of 15.3%), and the corresponding ton price was 82700 yuan / ton (with an increase of 30.7%).
In terms of sub regions, in 2021, the revenue of the eastern region was 18.782 billion yuan (with an increase of 32%), accounting for 28.4% (with an increase of 3.6pct), and the proportion of East China continued to increase; The revenue of the southern region was 7.430 billion yuan (with an increase of 32%), accounting for 11.2% (with an increase of 1.4pct); The revenue of the western region was 16.979 billion yuan (with a decrease of 8%), accounting for 25.6% (with a decrease of 6.6pct); The revenue of the northern region was 7.535 billion yuan (with an increase of 30%), accounting for 11.4% (with an increase of 1.3pct); The revenue of the central region was 11.005 billion yuan (with an increase of 32%), accounting for 16.6% (with an increase of 2pct).
By channel, the sales revenue of the distribution model in 2021 was 50.137 billion yuan (with an increase of 10.5%), accounting for 75.7% (with a decrease of 3.5 PCT); The revenue of direct selling mode was RMB 11.595 billion (with an increase of 64.4%), accounting for 17.5% (with an increase of 5pct). By 2021, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products have 2054 distributors, with an increase of 93; There are 602 distributors of series liquor products, with an increase of 87.
In terms of production capacity, the total production capacity of liquor in 2021 will be 188700 tons (with an increase of 19%), of which the total production capacity of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) products will be 28400 tons (with an increase of 9.5%), and the total production capacity of series liquor products will be 160300 tons (with an increase of 20.6%).
In 2022, we will continue to make progress while maintaining stability, and four highlights in the future
In 2022, the company will continue to do a good job in marketing, adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, unswervingly focus on strengthening the main business of the wine industry, continue to promote the transformation and innovation leap, further promote the long-term work policy of making up for shortcomings and lengthening the version, and lay out a new round of high-quality development. Adhere to the core of high-quality improvement, accelerate the construction of new manufacturer relations, strengthen supply chain stability, channel transformation and market expectations, and ensure the full realization of new development with steady progress.
Four highlights of the company in the future: first, the main brand “1 + 3” product system remains unchanged, continue to promote the established strategy, hold high and promote the classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) development. Second, in terms of channels, continue to promote group purchase channels. Further expand 8 highland markets and 14 provincial capital level key markets in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Zhengzhou. Third, in terms of liquor series, focus on resources to build four national strategic brands: Jianzhuang, wuliangchun, wuliangtequ, and strive for sales of more than 20 billion yuan during the 14th Five Year Plan Period: Jianzhuang’s target of 10 billion yuan, wuliangchun and wuliangchun’s target of 5 billion yuan, and wuliangtequ’s target of 2 billion yuan. Fourth, the current Maotai wholesale price is steadily above 2500 yuan. The Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) wholesale price will stand firm in 2022. There is little problem with the price band of 1000 yuan. It is expected to continue to rise both in volume and price, with high performance certainty.
Profit forecast
We believe that the company has taken many measures in recent years to reform and improve the brand, products, prices and channels, with remarkable results and high market recognition. At present, the company’s valuation is undervalued, the first quarter report continues to grow steadily, and the subsequent repair is expected to be accelerated. We expect that the EPS of 20222024 will be 6.97/8.20/9.47 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be 24 / 20 / 18 times respectively, maintaining the “recommended” investment rating.
Risk tips
Macroeconomic downside risk, epidemic drag on consumption, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) growth is lower than expected, wholesale price rise is lower than expected, group purchase growth is lower than expected, etc.
