\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 3.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.1%, a sales volume of 794000 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 11.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.3%. Meet expectations.
Q1 is in line with expectations, with both volume and price rising to promote high-end. In 2022q1, the company’s sales volume / ton price / ton cost were + 11.7% / 4.6% / 5.2% year-on-year respectively. In terms of products, the revenue of high-end / mainstream / economy reached 1.37/19.9/390 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.0% / 13.2% / 12.8% respectively, and the proportion of high-end products increased by 2.1pct to 36.5%. It is expected that Wusu will still be the main growth force. With the improvement of the epidemic outside Xinjiang and the relaxation of control inside Xinjiang, the high growth of Wusu can still be expected; In terms of subregions, the Northwest / central / southern region achieved a revenue of 1.20/16.6/900 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.0% / 20.7% / 14.1% respectively, of which the revenue of the central region accounted for + 1.4pct to 42.8% year-on-year. The company’s high-end offset the cost pressure. In 2022q1, the gross profit margin of sales increased from -0.2pct to 47.7% year-on-year, and the profitability of products remained stable.
The overall operation was stable, and the improvement of income tax rate dragged down the performance. In 2022q1, the company’s sales / management / R & D expense ratio was 13.7% / 3.4% / 0.6%, respectively + 0.6 / – 0.8 / – 0.1pct year-on-year. During this period, the expense ratio was basically the same. The company’s sales expense maintained a rapid growth, with high-end momentum, up to + 22.6% year-on-year. At present, the company is still in the process of rapid promotion of high-end development. It is expected that the annual sales expense ratio will be flat or slightly increased, so as to realize the common growth of Wusu and other high-end products. In 2022q1, the company achieved an operating profit of 930 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21.0% and an operating profit margin of + 0.8pct to 24.2% year-on-year. However, due to the income tax rate of + 6.5pct to 26.2% year-on-year, it is expected that the tax rate preference applied by the company has not been approved, driving the net interest rate / parent net interest rate to – 1 / – 0.1pct to 17.9% / 8.9% year-on-year, and the profitability is still high. 296 / 712 dealers were added / decreased in 2022q1, a net decrease of 416 compared with the end of 2021, which is expected to be related to the active integration of channels after the adjustment of Bu.
Focus on the improvement of profitability under the high-end strategy. The company makes efforts to make high-end products with the 6 + 6 brand combination, the sales volume under the plan of big cities increases rapidly, and offsets the cost pressure with the scale effect. Considering the rise of Q1 transportation cost, the rise of ton cost caused by the rise of raw material price is expected to be only a low single digit. Considering the marginal slowdown of the impact of the epidemic and the peak season of beer sales, the profitability of heavy beer products is expected to continue to rise, driving the company’s profitability to continue to rise, which can be expected in the future.
Profit forecast: maintain the previous profit forecast. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 15.66/18.13/20.39 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.4% / 15.8% / 12.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 14.6/19.3/2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% / 32.2% / 20.7%. The current share price corresponds to 42 / 32 / 26 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Prompt of repeated epidemic risk; The expansion of new products is less than expected; The dynamic sales in peak season are less than expected; Industry competition intensifies.
