\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 808 China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) )
Key investment points
22q1 earnings exceeded expectations
In the first quarter, the company achieved a revenue of 6.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 304 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 67.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was 267 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 76.5%. The company continued to promote cost reduction and efficiency increase. In 22q1, the company's gross profit margin was 10.79%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.64pct.
Crude oil prices are at an all-time high, and the company is expected to benefit from the increase in capital expenditure of the parent company
22q1, the average price of Brent crude oil was US $98 / barrel, an increase of 60% over the same period last year. CNOOC, the 22q1 parent company of the company, realized a net profit of 34.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 132%. CNOOC Q1 capital expenditure was 16.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.58%. CNOOC's capital expenditure plan this year is 90-100 billion yuan, and Q1 capital expenditure accounts for about 17-19%. The progress of subsequent capital expenditure is expected to accelerate.
China's policy of increasing reserves and production is firm, and the prosperity of oil service industry is rising
In March, the 14th five year plan for modern energy system issued by the national development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration pointed out that by 2025, the annual output of crude oil will rise and stabilize at the level of 200 million tons, and the annual output of natural gas will reach more than 230 billion cubic meters. In addition, the guidance on energy work in 2022 issued by the National Energy Administration emphasizes that the development and application of advanced oil and gas exploitation technology should be accelerated to consolidate the good momentum of increasing reserves and production. China's three major oil companies continue to increase capital investment in exploration and production, strengthen oil and gas exploration and development, accelerate shale oil and gas development, and pay attention to increasing reserves and production of old oil fields. Unconventional oil and gas and deep-sea oil and gas have become the main positions for increasing reserves and production. China's oilfield service industry and market continued to improve.
The workload and utilization rate increased significantly, and the oil service industry recovered significantly
In terms of business, in the drilling sector, affected by the overall recovery of the oil service industry, the company's drilling platform operated for 3922 days, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. Among them, the jack up drilling platform operated for 3239 days, with a year-on-year increase of 26.1%. The semi submersible drilling platform operated for 683 days, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%. However, the five modular drilling rigs operating in the Gulf of Mexico with high daily rate level operated for 268 days in this period, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. From the perspective of utilization rate, the utilization rate of drilling platform in calendar days reached 75.9%, with a year-on-year increase of 10.1pct. Among them, the utilization rate of jack up drilling platform in calendar days reached 83%, with a year-on-year increase of 16pct; The utilization rate of semi submersible drilling platform in calendar days was 54.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.6pct. In the ship sector, the number of operation days was 12768, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, and the utilization rate of calendar days reached 91.8%, an increase of 2pct. Due to the seasonal impact of geophysical exploration, the volume of cable operations in China decreased by 243.52% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: maintain the profit forecast of the in-depth report. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 34.5 billion yuan, 40.6 billion yuan and 47.2 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 18% / 17.75% / 16.26%; It is predicted that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-24 years will be RMB 4.43/53.4/5.55 billion respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.93/1.12/1.16, and the corresponding valuation level is 15.3/12.7/12.2x. In 2022, the high oil price fluctuated, superimposed on the energy policy, promoted the high prosperity of the oil service industry, and the company has a leading industry position. With reference to the company's historical valuation, the company gave a 20 times valuation in 2022 and a "buy-b" rating.
Risk warning: the epidemic situation has worsened, greatly reducing global oil demand; The negotiations of OPEC + major crude oil producers failed, resulting in a significant increase in production and an imbalance between supply and demand; The United States has vigorously exploited shale oil, and the supply has increased significantly, impacting the crude oil market; Carbon neutralization policy, accelerate the development of new energy and reduce the demand for crude oil
