\u3000\u3 Guocheng Mining Co.Ltd(000688) 390 Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) )
Event: the company issued the annual report of 2021 and the report of the first quarter of 2022.
Shipments continued to grow steadily, and the cost side was damaged, resulting in a decline in profitability. The company shipped 1.7368 billion inverters, with a year-on-year increase of 2.708 billion inverters, and the company's sales revenue of storage and power inverters continued to maintain a year-on-year growth of 2.708 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 3.708 billion inverters. On the cost side, due to the tight supply of components, rising shipping prices, RMB appreciation and other factors, the gross profit margin was damaged. The sales gross profit margin fell 6pcts to 31.66% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 280 million yuan in the whole year, an increase of only 7.40% year-on-year. In the first quarter of 2022, the company achieved an operating revenue of 650 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.16%. The cost side is still under pressure, with a gross profit margin of 30.12% and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 09 million yuan.
Reshape the company's strategy, expand horizontally based on new energy, and strive to become an overall solution provider of smart energy system. The short-term profitability is under pressure and the long-term growth can be expected. Based on power electronics technology and grid connected inverter and energy storage inverter business, the company began to layout BIPV and distributed household photovoltaic power generation system business in 2021. At the same time, it further expanded energy storage integrated system business and is committed to becoming an overall solution provider of smart energy system. While actively laying out new businesses, the early-stage expenses increased rapidly. The rates of sales, management and R & D expenses of 2022q1 company were 10.5%, 5.7% and 10.5% respectively, which increased by 2.6%, 1.8% and 3.4% respectively compared with 2021, which was the most important reason why the profit of 2022q1 was lower than expected. However, in the long run, the company's new business layout is in line with the general trend of China's distributed development and global energy storage installed capacity growth. The early business layout and cost investment are expected to increase the driving force of the company's future growth.
Global distributed demand is strong, and the company's series inverter shipment is expected to increase significantly, stabilizing the basic sector of business growth. In China, thanks to the implementation of the policy of "promoting the whole county", the demand for household installed capacity ushered in a high increase. In 2021, 21.60gw of household photovoltaic installed capacity was added. Under the background of the admission of multi-channel capital such as power station developers and energy groups, China's household photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to continue to maintain a high increase; Overseas, affected by the rising prices of traditional energy and geopolitical tensions, European countries have accelerated the process of energy transformation, and there is a strong demand for distributed installed capacity. The company's inverter products are mainly for household and other distributed scenarios. They enjoy a high market share in the subdivided fields and benefit from the high boom of distributed demand outside China. The company's grid connected inverter shipment is expected to achieve high growth and stabilize the basic business of the company.
Profit forecast: the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 480 / 814 / 1111 million from 2022 to 2024, corresponding to 31.7 / 18.7 / 13.7 times the valuation, and maintain the rating of "overweight".
Risk tip: the global PV installation demand is less than expected; Energy storage demand is lower than expected; The acceleration of technological iteration in the energy storage industry has dragged down the backward production capacity of enterprises.
