\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event: the company released its annual report for 2021, and achieved an operating revenue of 66.209 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.377 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. Among them, 21q4 achieved an operating revenue of 16.488 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%.
At the same time, the company announced the first quarterly report of 2022. 22q1 achieved an operating revenue of 27.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.823 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.08%
Key investment points
In the past 21 years, it has grown steadily, and a series of wines have achieved high growth. The revenue of 21 / 21q4 company was 66.209/16.488 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.5% / + 11.2%. 1) In terms of products, the revenue of liquor in 21 years was 61.732 billion yuan, up + 17.7% year-on-year. The revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Series liquor products was 49.112/12.62 billion yuan, up + 11.5% / + 50.7% year-on-year. In terms of sales volume, the sales volume of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Series liquor products was 292 / 152600 tons, up + 3.8% / + 15.3% year-on-year. 2) In terms of sub regions, the Eastern / Southern / Western / northern / central regions achieved revenue of 18.782/74.30/169.79/75.35/11.005 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 32.4% / + 32.1% / – 8.2% / + 30.2% / + 31.9%. Under the background of low base in the southern, northern and central regions, the revenue achieved rapid growth; 3) In terms of channels, the distribution / direct sales mode achieved revenue of 50.137/11.595 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.5% / + 64.4%. At the same time, in the whole year of 21, the company had 2656 dealers and 2054 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) dealers, of which 36 were added in the eastern region.
The revenue of 21q1 reached 27.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.3%. Under the background of price increase in 21 years and stable sales during the Spring Festival, the company achieved steady growth in the first quarter. At the same time, the demand side has been weak due to the recent epidemic, and the competition in the price band of 1000 yuan in the Baijiu industry has intensified. Recently, the sales of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) . In the early stage, the approval price was slightly under pressure. The company ensured the relative stability of the approval price and the stable growth of the company’s performance by appropriately controlling the amount of investment.
In the 21st year, the gross profit margin increased steadily and the profitability improved steadily. The gross profit margin of the company in 21 years was 75.35%, year-on-year + 1.19 PTCs, of which the gross profit margin of alcohol was 80.29%, year-on-year + 0.01 PCTs. The sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate are 9.82% / 4.38% / – 2.62% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.09 / – 0.17 / – 0.02ptcs, and the company’s net interest rate in 21 years is 35.31%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.50ptcs; The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 78.41%, year-on-year + 1.98 PTCs, the sales expense rate / management expense rate / financial expense rate were 7.38% / 3.56% / – 1.86%, year-on-year + 0.29 / – 0.35 / + 0.00 PTCs, and the net profit margin of 22q1 company was 39.29%, year-on-year + 0.96 PTCs. The profitability of the company is stable and good. 21q1 contract liabilities + other current liabilities were 4.1 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of – 1.53 billion yuan and a month on month increase of – 10.65 billion yuan. Meanwhile, notes receivable increased by 52.8% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the proportion of notes used by the company to reduce the financial pressure of dealers under the influence of the epidemic.
The management has achieved a smooth transition, and a series of reforms have contributed to long-term development. Recently, the company has completed personnel adjustment and actively carried out a new round of reform. In terms of management system, the company is actively and effectively combing the management system of the joint stock company and orderly promoting the medium and long-term incentive scheme, mobilizing the enthusiasm of employees at the management level through reform, so as to provide endogenous guarantee for the long-term development of the company. In terms of channels, the company systematically plans the precise delivery volume and structure of the eighth generation Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) to further improve the channel profits of high-quality merchants around cultural and creative products. In terms of products, classic Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has unswervingly carried out brand building through multi-directional adjustment. The company’s management reform plan is clear, and we look forward to seeing positive results after 22q2.
Investment suggestion: under the repressive factors such as the intensified competition in the 1000 yuan price band and the lower than expected increase rhythm of the general five rating, the stock price of the company has been adjusted in the early stage. At present, the company corresponds to 23xpe for 22 years, which is obviously underestimated. In view of the improvement of the company’s long-term brand strength and the large-scale volume of 1000 yuan price band, we are optimistic about the company’s performance expectation and valuation repair. We predict that the company’s operating revenue from 2022 to 2024 will be 759.56/872.26/995.69 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 14.7% / 14.8% / 14.2%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 27.382323.26/37.270 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 17.1% / 18.1% / 15.3%. The corresponding EPS is 7.05/8.33/9.60 yuan respectively, maintaining the company’s “Buy-A” rating.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks in some areas; The price trend is less than expected; The promotion of new products is less than expected; Economic fundamentals affect Baijiu consumption; Food safety issues.
