\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 088 Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) )
Event: the company released the first quarterly report of 2022, realizing an operating revenue of 650 million yuan, an increase of 6.7% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 120 million yuan, an increase of 7.0% at the same time; Deduct 120 million yuan of net profit not attributable to the parent company, an increase of 12.5% at the same time.
Comments:
The epidemic dragged down delivery and improved profitability month on month: in the first quarter of 22, there were epidemics in many places across the country, the epidemic prevention and control measures were relatively strict, and Shandong was also greatly affected, which suppressed the downstream demand of the company's products and supply chain delivery to a certain extent. 22q1, the price of raw and fuel materials remained high, but the profitability of the company showed strong toughness, with a gross profit margin of 35.31%, a year-on-year increase of -1.86pct and a month on month increase of + 2.89pct; The net interest rate was 18.62%, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.04pct and a month on month increase of + 3.84pct. We believe that during the reporting period, the company's shipment was subject to certain restrictions and its production capacity may not be brought into full play. Excluding the impact of this factor, the actual profitability may be higher.
During the period, the expense rate further decreased and the operating cash flow remained normal: in 22q1, the company's expense rate during the period was 14.02%, with a year-on-year rate of -2.08pct, of which the sales / management / financial expense rate was 5.45% / 8.41% / 0.16%, with a year-on-year rate of -1.35 / - 1.12 / + 0.40pct. The increase in lease expenses and exchange recognition is mainly due to the increase in financial losses. The net operating cash flow was - 6.5 million yuan, compared with + 71.9 million yuan in the same period of last year. The epidemic affected the company's sales to a certain extent, but the payment for materials, energy and due acceptance increased. See the inventory reached 472 million yuan, up + 113 million yuan year-on-year.
Verify the competitive advantage again, and the trend of increasing market share will continue: looking back on the development of the company, the sharp increase in performance in 2021 is mainly due to the continuous growth and full release of production capacity driven by the reform of marketing system. Over the past years, the company has continuously improved its single line production capacity and reduced energy consumption through technological transformation, and its cost control ability is significantly ahead of its peers. Relying on its cost and technical advantages, the company continued to optimize its sales model, which effectively promoted the sales volume of bulk materials (thermal insulation) products and the market share of functional products (fire resistance) to increase steadily. 22q1 in the face of operating pressure, the company effectively conducted costs, maintained high profitability, and once again demonstrated its strong competitiveness in the market. We believe that with the continuous expansion of the company's production capacity, the market share will be further increased.
Profit forecast and valuation rating: the energy-saving transformation of high-energy consumption industry is the general trend, and the company's technology and cost advantages are leading in the industry. Therefore, the logic of "market share improvement brought by the reform of supply side marketing system + energy conservation and carbon reduction trend to promote the expansion of market demand" will still be deduced. The controlling shareholder has launched a tender offer for the company. If the matter is successful, it will further inject resources and technology into the company, promote the qualitative improvement of business structure and continue to open the ceiling of growth. We maintain the company's EPS forecast of 1.23, 1.56 and 1.90 yuan for 22-24 years, respectively, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth of industry demand is less than expected; The increase of the company's market share is less than expected; New business expansion is less than expected; The recovery of rock wool business was less than expected; The proportion of cash dividends decreased significantly; The tender offer shall not take effect.
