\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 905 China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) )
Event:
China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) release 2021 annual report and 2022 quarterly report:
1) in 2021, the operating revenue reached 15.484 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.85%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 5.642 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.26%.
2) 2022q1: the operating revenue was 5.789 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 51.84%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.264 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 51.45%.
Key investment points:
Power generation revenue growth + investment income increased significantly, and the net profit maintained a rapid growth of more than 50%. 1) 2021: the company added 7.2998 million kw of grid connected installed capacity and 33.069 billion kwh of power generation, with a year-on-year increase of 42.5%, driving a significant increase in revenue and net profit. Among them, the wind power and photovoltaic power generation were 22.889 billion kWh and 9.499 billion kwh respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 40%. The kWh revenue was 0.440 and 0.523 yuan / kWh respectively, and the kWh gross profit was 0.266 and 0.290 yuan / kWh respectively. In addition, the company achieved an investment income of 1.73 billion, a year-on-year increase of 241%, further thickening the profit.
2) 2022q1: the company achieved an operating revenue of 5.789 billion yuan in the first quarter, with a year-on-year increase of 51.84%, mainly driven by the growth of power generation. In the first quarter, the company’s total power generation was 11.631 billion kwh, an increase of 46.58% over the same period of the previous year, and the kWh revenue was 0.498 yuan / kWh, an increase of 4% year-on-year, which promoted the revenue and net profit of the first quarter to maintain a high growth rate of more than 50%.
Focusing on large-scale development, the “scenic Three Gorges” was completed as scheduled. In the 14th five year plan, the Three Gorges group will realize the installed capacity of 70-80gw of new energy and China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) shoulder the main responsibility. At the end of 2021, the installed capacity of the company’s grid connection reached 228963 million KW, including 142692 million kw of wind power (an increase of 5.3887 million KW) and 8.4119 million kw of photovoltaic power (an increase of 1.9111 million KW), which exceeded the installed capacity of the Three Gorges Hydropower Station (22.5 million KW). The first “scenery Three Gorges” was completed on schedule, and the first independent energy storage power station China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) Qingyun energy storage power station of the company was also successfully connected to the grid in the first phase. In 2021, the company added 15.46gw of approved installed capacity, including 3.01gw of wind power and 12.45gw of photovoltaic power; 11.07gw of projects under construction, including 5.02gw of wind power and 6.05gw of photovoltaic power. The production capacity under construction is expected to further release the profit space.
Firmly implement the strategy of “leading offshore wind power”, with an installed capacity of 4.6gw. At the end of 2021, the company’s offshore wind power projects completed and put into operation in Guangdong, Jiangsu, Fujian, Liaoning and other places had a total installed capacity of 4.5752 million kW (an increase of 3.237 million KW), accounting for 17.34% of the national market share, an increase of 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. The scale advantage of offshore wind is prominent. According to the prediction of China’s 14th five year plan for power development, by 2025, the single unit capacity of China’s offshore wind turbine is expected to be increased to 9.5MW, and the initial investment will be reduced to 13700 yuan / kW. With the trend of large-scale units superimposed on technological progress, the yield of Haifeng project is expected to rise further.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we estimate that the operating revenue of the company from 2022 to 2024 will be 23.48928939934682 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 52% / 23% / 20%, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 8.254/10.37/12.184 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 46% / 22% / 21%, and the PE from 2022 to 2024 will be 19.28/15.86/13.06 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risks suggest macroeconomic downturn; Risk of policy change; The installation progress is less than expected; Electricity demand is less than expected; Risk of electricity price decline.
