\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 1 Shenzhen Kaifa Technology Co.Ltd(000021) 00)
The sow population was expanded, the feed and animal protection business grew steadily, and the “buy” rating was maintained
Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022: the company achieved a revenue of 15.744 billion yuan (+ 31.35%) and a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 686 million yuan (- 139.87%) in 2021; In 2022q1, the company achieved a revenue of 3.392 billion yuan (+ 1.58%), and a net profit attributable to the parent company of – 70 million yuan (- 123.12%). The decline of pig price has dragged down the company’s short-term operating performance. The cost of pig head seedlings of 2022q1 company has decreased, but the pig price is still relatively low, so the forecast for 2022 is lowered; It is expected that the pig price will start to rise in 2022q2, raise the forecast for 2023, and add the forecast for 2024. It is expected that the company will realize the net profit attributable to the parent of 288 / 17.04 / 1.721 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024 (the forecast value before 20222023 is 1.31/660 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS are 0.21/1.26/1.27 yuan respectively. The current share price corresponds to 44.4/7.5/7.4 times of PE. The company’s pig marketing cost in Henan and Gansu has decreased steadily and maintained the “buy” rating.
Piglet fattening will raise the company’s marketing cost in 2021, and Gansu and Henan will realize batch pig production in 2022q2
In 2021, the company sold 1 Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) pigs (+ 19.20%). The loss of breeding business is about 1.21 billion yuan (including a small amount of cattle and sheep breeding), including 220 million yuan of asset impairment provision. Since the second half of 2021, the company has gradually reduced the breeding scale of the feed division. In 2022, the company has stopped outsourcing piglets of the feed division. In 2022 and in the future, the fattening production of the company will be transformed into self breeding production dominated by Xinjiang, Gansu and Henan. In 2021q1, the company will sell 376900 pigs (+ 6.47%). It is expected that the breeding capacity of 2022q2 company in Henan and Gansu will realize normal batch pig production, and the cost will be significantly reduced. By the end of 2021 and January 2022, the company has been able to breed 120000 sows and about 22 psy, so as to support the company’s goal of 2.2 million pigs in 2022.
Feed and other businesses grew steadily, and the company has sufficient reserves to support the expansion of bottom breeding capacity
In 2021, the company’s feed business revenue was 5.135 billion yuan (+ 21.83%), the net profit was about 249 million yuan, and the annual feed sales volume was 2.3125 million tons (+ 21.08%); The sales of pig feed, ruminant feed and poultry feed were 127.91/45.43458000 tons respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 52.09% / + 27.22% / – 23.60% respectively. In 2021, the company realized a profit of 247 million yuan for animal vaccine, and a total profit of about 91 million yuan for cottonseed processing and corn collection and storage business. By the end of the reporting period in 2021, the company’s book monetary capital was 3.424 billion yuan (+ 63.64%), and the asset liability ratio was 54.71% (- 1.63 PCT). At the bottom of the cycle, abundant cash reserves and low debt ratio supported the company to realize the scale expansion of the counter cycle.
Risk tip: the decline range of feed raw material price, the length of loss cycle of pig breeding industry, etc.
