\u3000\u3 China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) 568 Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co.Ltd(002568) )
Event: the company released the annual report of 2021 and the first quarterly report of 2022. In 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 2.594 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.66%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 666 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.38%; Net profit deducted from non parent company was 630 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 36.63%. 22q1 company achieved a revenue of 539 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 92 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.94%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 91 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.36%.
Since 21q4, affected by the epidemic, the growth of revenue has slowed down, and the growth of digital retail channels has been bright. In 2021, the company’s pre mixed cocktail / edible essence / other businesses achieved revenue of RMB 2.285/2.73/0.36 billion respectively, a year-on-year increase of +33.49%/+37.72%/+120.41%. In the whole year, all businesses maintained rapid growth, but the revenue growth of 21q4/22q1 was +12.97%/+4.14% respectively, of which the revenue growth of pre mixed cocktail was +13.85%/+0.34%. The main reason for the slowdown was the frequent occurrence of spot and regional epidemics in China, and the company’s raw material supply and production logistics were limited, Some key cities lost sales due to the closure. By channel, in 2021, the retail / digital retail / ready to drink channels under the middle line of the company’s main business achieved revenue of RMB 1.814648/97 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.70% / + 70.29% / + 52.35%. The growth rate of digital retail channels took the lead, accounting for 25.3% of the main business revenue, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.4pct.
22q1 highlighted the cost pressure, and the expenses increased due to new equity incentives, large depreciation and convertible bond interest. In 2021, the company’s gross profit margin was 65.43%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.08pct. Under the combined influence of factors such as the improvement of capacity utilization and the rise of raw material and labor logistics costs, the gross profit margin was basically flat; The sales expense rate / management expense rate / R & D expense rate / financial expense rate were 21.85% / 5.26% / 2.82% / – 0.79% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -0.37pct / + 0.03pct / – 0.49pct / – 0.38pct respectively; The net interest rate was 25.61%, with a year-on-year increase of -2.18pct. All expense rates of the company remained stable in 2021. The decrease in net interest rate was mainly due to the high government subsidies in non recurring profits and losses in 20 years. The gross profit margin of 22q1 company was 62.51%, with a year-on-year increase of -4.81pct. Under the interpretation of the epidemic exceeding expectations, the rising pressure of raw materials, packaging materials and logistics costs became prominent. In October 21, Qionglai factory was put into operation, which increased large fixed assets and depreciation expenses. 22q1 sales expense ratio / management expense ratio / R & D expense ratio / financial expense ratio were 25.58% / 6.76% / 3.26% / – 0.16% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.93pct / + 2.18pct / + 0.71pct / + 1.43pct respectively. We believe that the main reasons are the increase of three expenses caused by the new equity incentive expenses, the increase of depreciation expenses and the increase of interest expenses after the issuance of convertible bonds. Affected by the above comprehensive factors, the net interest rate of 22q1 was 16.95%, with a year-on-year increase of -8.33pct.
The short-term disturbance does not change the logic of long-term expansion of the industry. The company has more energy and full potential for growth. In terms of pre blending, we believe that there is still broad space in the Chinese market. The growth point of the industry lies in the expansion of consumer groups, the extension of consumption scenes and the improvement of consumption frequency. The short-term external environment changes will not affect the logic of long-term expansion of the industry. The company’s basic market is stable. In 2022, with refreshing as the strategic focus, the company also cultivates strong and cool, plum beauty and energy storage, and has a variety of product reserves. Through multiple products, the company locates different alcohol degrees, tastes and consumption scenes, accurately markets and educates potential consumers, and leads the expansion of the industry while cultivating products. In April, two new flavors were added to the refreshing series. At present, the terminal distribution and marketing promotion are advancing simultaneously. In addition, the company’s Laizhou distillery was completed and put into operation in 2021, and the company took the lead in the field of spirits in China. In the future, whisky finished liquor and whisky based pre blending liquor are expected to become new growth points.
Investment suggestion: considering that repeated epidemics in many places and blocked logistics have a great impact on the company’s short-term sales, and the sharp rise in raw materials and logistics costs has put pressure on the cost side, we reduce the profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve a revenue of 3.249/4.232/5.242 billion yuan from 2022 to 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 25.2% / 30.3% / 23.9% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 767 / 1061 / 1355 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.2% / 38.4% / 27.7%, corresponding EPS of 1.02/1.41/1.80 yuan and corresponding valuation of 28.8/20.8/16.3 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of the industry slows down; Industry competition intensifies; The promotion of new products is less than expected
