\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 333 Guangshen Railway Company Limited(601333) )
Event: the company released the 2021 annual report and the first quarterly report of 2022. The company achieved an operating revenue of 20.2 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year increase of 23.6%; The net loss attributable to the parent company was about 970 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 420 million yuan; Deducting the net loss not attributable to the parent company was about 1.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 360 million yuan. The company will not pay dividends in 2021. The company’s operating revenue in the first quarter of 22 years was about 5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%; The net loss attributable to the parent is about 400 million yuan, and the net loss deducted from the non attributable to the parent is about 410 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 300 million yuan and 320 million yuan respectively.
The per capita passenger transport income increased, and the passenger transport income recovered year-on-year. In 2021, the company sent about 40.78 million passengers, a decrease of 4.8% compared with the same period in 2020 and 52% compared with the same period in 19. The main reason is that the passenger volume of intercity trains, through trains and long-distance trains decreased by 3.8%, 100% and 5.2% respectively compared with the same period in 2020 and 57%, 100% and 46% respectively compared with the same period in 2019. The per capita revenue of intercity passenger trains increased by 58% in October 2021, and the per capita revenue of intercity passenger trains increased by 58% in October 2021. Based on the above factors, the company achieved a passenger revenue of 6.17 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 50% over the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 23% over the same period in 2019. On December 10, 2021, the Jiangxi Shenzhen railway was put into operation and interconnected with the Guangzhou Shenzhen intercity railway. The company opened some cross line EMU trains bound for the Jiangxi Shenzhen railway, which is expected to contribute to the increase of revenue in the future.
Demand recovered, and the revenue from road network clearing and other transportation services increased year-on-year. In 2021, the company’s road network clearing service revenue reached 3.79 billion yuan, an increase of 0.82% over the same period in 2020 and a decrease of 10% over the same period in 19 years; In 2021, the revenue from other transportation services reached 7.03 billion yuan, an increase of 20.8% over the same period in 2020 and 23% over the same period in 19. The main reason is that the company has added the liquidation revenue of high-speed rail transportation capacity guarantee fee, and the workload of passenger and freight transportation services provided by the company to related parties has increased significantly.
Freight business revenue recovered rapidly. In 2021, the volume of goods delivered by the company increased by 15.8% year-on-year, and the whole process turnover of goods delivered increased by 13.68% year-on-year, returning to the level of the same period in 19 years, mainly because the company made full use of the transportation capacity released by the decline of passenger flow, vigorously carried out “Freight incremental action” and implemented the business strategy of “replenishing passengers with goods”. Based on the above factors, the company achieved a freight revenue of 2.04 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 19.8% and a decrease of 3.7% compared with the same period in 2020.
The cost increase was less than the income increase, and the gross profit margin rebounded year-on-year. The company’s main operating costs increased by 19.1% year-on-year in 2021, which was less than the increase in revenue. The main reason was that the supporting policies during the epidemic in 2020 had been cancelled in 2021. At the same time, the recovery of demand also led to the synchronous increase of relevant operating costs and the increase of relevant epidemic prevention expenses. Based on the above factors, the company’s gross profit margin in 2021 was – 5.22%, with a year-on-year increase of 4.13pct.
Investment suggestion: the negative impact of the epidemic on the company’s production and operation will continue. The company plans to complete the passenger volume of 51 million in 22 years (excluding entrusted transportation), equivalent to 60% of the passenger volume in 19 years. Considering the repeated epidemic situation in China, we lowered the company’s net profit forecast for 22-23 years to – 280 million yuan and + 280 million yuan respectively (originally + 310 million yuan and + 480 million yuan), and increased the net profit forecast for 24 years by 570 million yuan; As the company’s A-Shares and H shares are in a net breaking state, we maintain the “overweight” rating of the company’s A-Shares and H shares.
Risk tip: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of passenger and freight demand; The passenger volume of self operated railway lines fell sharply; The growth of network clearing revenue and railway operation service revenue was lower than expected.
