\u3000\u3 Guangdong Shaoneng Group Co.Ltd(000601) 233 Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) )
Event: on April 27, the company released its 2021 annual report: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 59.131 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.01%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.332 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 158.44%; Q4 achieved a revenue of 8.783 billion yuan in a single quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%, a month on month decrease of 56.43%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.171 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.69% and a month on month decrease of 42.24%. The quarterly report of the parent company was RMB 294.2 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 12.92%, and the net profit of the parent company decreased by 1.62% over 2022q1, with a year-on-year increase of RMB 9.42 billion and a year-on-year decrease of 1.62%.
Comments:
The release of filament production capacity combined with large refining and chemical increment has greatly improved the company’s performance. In 2021, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 7.291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 163.53%; In 2022q1, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.503 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.45% and a month on month increase of 28.37%. In terms of profitability, in 2021, the gross profit margin was 11.02%, up 4.7pct year-on-year, the net profit margin was 12.43%, up 6.2pct year-on-year, and the roe was 20.46%, up 9.37pct year-on-year; In 2022q1, the gross profit margin was 9.72%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.86pct, a month on month decrease of 0.74pct, the net profit margin was 11.62%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.82pct, a month on month decrease of 1.77pct, roe was 4.04%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.97pct and a month on month increase of 0.72pct. In the fourth quarter, affected by the narrowing of price difference of polyester filament and the decline of production and sales, the profitability of the company was under pressure month on month; However, benefiting from the release of the company’s filament production capacity and the continuous optimization of the industry pattern, as well as the increment of investment income brought by large refining and chemical projects, the company’s profit in the first quarter was repaired and increased month on month. In terms of period expenses, the total period expense rate of the company in 2021 was 4.84%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.18pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 0.14%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.03pct; The rate of administrative expenses (including R & D expenses and comparable caliber) was 4.15%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.37pct; The financial expense ratio was 0.55%, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.16pct. During 2022q1, the total expense rate of the company was 5.37%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.01pct. Among them, the sales expense ratio was 0.17%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.03pct; The rate of administrative expenses (including R & D expenses and comparable caliber) was 4.49%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.06pct; The financial expense ratio was 0.71%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.02pct. The company vigorously promoted “5S” management, “TPM” management, “Six Sigma” management and other modes, strengthened intelligent control and automatic monitoring, and improved operation efficiency. In 2021, the company continued to increase R & D efforts, and R & D expenses increased.
The filament boom recovered in 2021, with repeated outbreaks and short-term pressure. In terms of price, according to wind, the average prices of polyester filament POY, FDY and DTY in 2021 were 7394 yuan / ton, 7569 yuan / ton and 8963 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 30.27%, 25.25% and 23.87%. The average prices of Q4 were 7748 yuan / ton, 7920 yuan / ton and 9444 yuan / ton respectively, with a month-on-month increase of 2.98%, 2.29% and 4.66%. The whole year showed an upward trend, and remained high in the first quarter. The average prices of Q1 were 7880 yuan / ton, 8188 yuan / ton and 9425 yuan / ton respectively, On a month on month basis, + 1.71%, + 3.39%, – 0.20% respectively. In terms of price difference, the average price difference between POY / FDY / DTY and PTA and ethylene glycol in 2021 was 1559 yuan / ton, 1734 yuan / ton and 3128 yuan / ton respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 34.33%, + 13.50% and + 14.98%, and the average price difference of Q4 was 1651 yuan / ton, 1823 yuan / ton and 3348 yuan / ton respectively, with a month-on-month increase of + 24.41%, + 17.90% and + 18.40%. The Q1 price difference was 1263 yuan / ton, 1572 yuan / ton and 2808 yuan / ton respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 23.49%, – 13.75% and – 16.21%. Due to the increased concentration of filament pattern and the continuous optimization of industrial pattern, the filament price and price difference in 2021 have improved by varying degrees compared with last year. In 2022, due to the repeated impact of China’s epidemic on demand, the price difference is under pressure in the short term. In terms of output, according to the announcement, the annual output of POY / FDY / DTY of the company in 2021 was 559.61/97.1770300 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 19.39% / – 10.93% / + 3.63%, and the sales volume was 542.42/95.71760100 tons respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.94% / – 12.1% / + 1.29%; The output of POY / FDY / DTY in Q4 single season was 118.13/27.25191800 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 20.99% / – 13.98% / – 0.57%, and the sales volume was 115.31/27.96214900 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 14.08% / – 18.85% / – 11.17%. In 2022q1, the output of POY / FDY / DTY in a single quarter was 154.75/24.83201000 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of + 8.28% / + 5.93% / + 5.40%, and the sales volume was 126.97/20.49170700 tons respectively, with a month on month ratio of – 3.47% / – 9.70% / – 10.58%. The company acquired the polyester spinning project of 500000 tons of “Jiangsu Haixin fiber” in mid-2021. The first polyester plant of Jiatong energy was started in December, and the supporting filament production line of the back road has been put into operation within the year. The subsequent production capacity of the project is expected to be started with the progress of a 300000 ton polyester plant every quarter, and the supporting filament production capacity will be released.
Zhejiang Petrochemical continued to contribute to its performance, and EVA opened the increment of new materials. Since 2021q1, Zhejiang Petrochemical has contributed huge investment income to the company every quarter, namely 870 million yuan, 1.405 billion yuan, 1.281 billion yuan, 893 million yuan and 1.068 billion yuan; According to the Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) announcement, Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II project has been fully put into operation, adding 20 million tons / year of refining capacity, 6.6 million tons / year of aromatics and 1.4 million tons / year of ethylene production capacity, keeping up with the pace of phase I project and maintaining a state of efficient and stable operation. Compared with phase I, phase II has a richer output of fine chemical products, such as polyethylene, EVA, polycarbonate For butadiene and other products, the product utilization rate and additional value should be further improved, driving the performance to a higher level and thickening the investment income of the company.
Consolidate the leading advantages in the filament field, blossom at multiple points and open a new chapter of growth. Yangkou Port Petrochemical polyester integration project: the subsidiary Jiatong energy construction has an annual output of 5 million tons of PTA and 2.4 million tons of polyester spinning. At present, 300000 tons of filament capacity has been put into operation. In the future, it is expected to start with a set of 300000 tons of polyester unit every quarter and release the supporting filament capacity. The civil works of PTA main device I have been completed to 60% and PTA main device II to 20%, which are expected to be put into operation at the end of October 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 respectively; Shuyang 2.4 million ton filament (staple fiber) project: equipped with 500 texturing machines, 10000 looms, supporting dyeing and finishing and public thermal energy center, the project approval has been basically completed, and the pile foundation construction of thermal power phase I, CP1 poly spinning, three-dimensional warehouse and 220kV general step-down transformer has been completed. Next, the civil construction of the project will be carried out in an all-round way; Hengxiang 150000 tons of surfactant and 200000 tons of textile additives: trial production began on September 14, 2021. After more than half a year of trial operation, all production lines have been opened and can be produced normally.
At present, all equipment is in normal operation. According to the sales situation, the output will be gradually increased every month. It is expected that the completion acceptance of the project will be carried out in the third quarter of 2022, and the full load operation will be realized by the end of the year; Gulei 2 million ton polyester fiber project: the company plans to invest in a new project with an annual output of 2 million tons of polyester fiber, 500 elastic machines and 2000 looms, so as to further realize the integration of industrial chain, improve the spatial layout outside the province, and continuously enhance the competitiveness of the enterprise. After several major projects are put into operation, the long-term filament production capacity of the company will reach 15.1 million tons, with broad growth space.
Risk warning: risk of large fluctuation of oil price and products; Risk of capacity release less than expected; The deterioration of the epidemic affects the demand risk.
Profit forecast: due to the fluctuation of product price, we adjust the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2024 will be 7.390 billion yuan (formerly 9.293 billion yuan), 8.283 billion yuan (formerly 10.526 billion yuan) and 9.45 billion yuan (newly added) respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
