\u3000\u30 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 58 Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) )
Event overview
In 21 years, the total operating income was 66.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 23.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 17.2%; 21q4 achieved a total operating revenue of 16.49 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.2%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 6.05 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 11.8%. 22q1 achieved a total operating revenue of 27.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 10.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 16.1%. Performance exceeded market expectations.
Analysis and judgment:
The volume and price of series liquor increased significantly, the core market was stable and high, and the revenue of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Series liquor in 21 years was 49.11/12.62 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year increase of + 11.5% / + 50.7% Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) product sales volume / ton price + 3.8% / + 7.4% year on year respectively; The sales volume / ton price of series liquor products were + 7.4% / + 30.7% year-on-year respectively. The contribution of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) product price increase to revenue is greater than volume increase in 21 years; The series of liquor products focus on the four national strategic brands of wuliangchun, wuliangchun, wuliangtequ and Jianzhuang, promote the continuous optimization of brand structure, and realize the simultaneous increase of volume and price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) and series of liquor products.
In terms of sub channels, in the past 21 years, the company has increased the cultivation of opinion leaders and online direct sales, with direct sales revenue of 11.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 64.4%. In terms of subregions, the revenue of the eastern part of the company’s core market was + 32.4% year-on-year. The company’s base in the southern, northern and central regions was low, and the region was relatively affected by the epidemic in 20 years. Therefore, the revenue in 21 years was + 32.1% / + 30.2% / + 31.9% year-on-year respectively. The number of dealers and specialty stores in all regions increased. At the end of 21, there were a net increase of 93 to 2054 dealers (a net increase of 87 to 602 series liquor dealers) and a net increase of 18 to 1545 specialty stores.
The profitability improved steadily, and the cash flow was mainly due to the pressure on the short-term dealer funds caused by the epidemic
In the 21st year, the volume and price of Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) / Series liquor rose simultaneously, and the gross profit margin was + 0.6 / + 4.0pct to 85.6% / 59.7% year-on-year respectively. The overall gross profit margin of 21fy / 22q1 was 75.4% / 78.4% year-on-year + 1.2/2.0pct. The sales expense ratio of 21fy / 22q1 increased from + 0.1/0.3pct to 9.8% / 7.4% year-on-year respectively, improving the distribution efficiency, increasing the storage, logistics and labor costs, and the online / offline / TV advertising costs were 160 / 550 / 510 million yuan respectively. The management expense ratio of 21fy / 22q1 was – 0.2/0.3pct to 4.4% / 3.6% year-on-year respectively, which remained basically stable. The net profit rate of 21fy / 22q1 was 37.0% / 41.3% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 0.5/1.1pct. The profitability increased steadily, mainly contributed by the gross profit margin.
At the end of the year, the net cash flow from operating activities was 26.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 82.2%, mainly due to the increase in cash receipts from sales (a year-on-year increase of + 29.2%); Contract liabilities amounted to 13.06 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 51.5%, which is expected to be caused by the increase of goods preparation and payment in the Spring Festival of 22 years. At the end of 22q1, the net cash flow from operating activities was -3.4 billion yuan (21q15.51 billion yuan), mainly due to the multi-point rebound of the epidemic in Q1 China. The company reduced the capital pressure of dealers by reducing the proportion of cash collection in advance collection and optimizing order plan management, resulting in a year-on-year increase of – 34.8% in sales cash and a higher amount of cash collection due from bank acceptance bills in the same period of last year. Contract liabilities were 3.61 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 27.7%.
The price raising strategy is firm, the leading position of the industry is stable, and the follow-up growth is highly deterministic
21q4 puwu price increase + management adjustment. After the organizational adjustment is in place, quickly start the marketing adjustment, adhere to the puwu volume price balance strategy, and emphasize the operation adjustment of classic and series wines. We believe that the current management’s firm goal and attitude of price increase and overall work highlight the strategic height of the management. We expect that the mid autumn price of puwu will be raised to more than 1000 yuan (the current price is about 980 yuan / bottle), and market confidence will be greatly boosted. At present, the concentration of Baijiu industry has increased, and the next high-end and mass liquor consumption scenarios affected by the epidemic are limited, while the high-end Baijiu is relatively less affected. We judge that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) mobile sales are in good condition during the Spring Festival, and Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) has been relatively less impacted by the epidemic since the festival, which is fully reflected in the accumulation of leading brands in the industry. We believe that Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) will continue to release brand advantages and further increase market share, with high growth certainty.
Investment advice
China’s epidemic continued to break out at many points, and the consumption of Baijiu was limited. After 22 years of superposition, the company’s price increase strategy was firm. We adjusted the annual profit forecast. From 2022 to 2023, the operating revenue was adjusted from 77.189/89.116 billion yuan to 76.204/89.025 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.1% / + 16.8%, and an additional operating revenue of 102511 billion yuan in 2024; The net profit attributable to the parent company was adjusted from RMB 27.596/32.321 billion to RMB 27.785/31.897 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.9% / + 17.8%. The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024 was increased by RMB 37.182 billion. EPS is adjusted from 7.11/8.33 yuan to 6.98/8.22 yuan, adding 2024 eps9 58 yuan. On April 28, 2022, the closing price of 165.85 yuan corresponding to PE was 23.77/20.18/17.31 times respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
The epidemic continued to exceed expectations; Economic downturn leads to weakening demand; Food safety issues.
