\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 132 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) )
Event overview
The company realized an operating revenue of 3.833 billion yuan in 22q1, a year-on-year increase of + 17.12%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 341 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 15.33%.
Analysis and judgment:
The volume and price of beer business increased simultaneously, and the high-end continued to advance
January February is the peak sales season of the Spring Festival. In March, the whole industry was impacted by the epidemic. Generally speaking, the company’s beer business in the first quarter still achieved the same increase in volume and price, the performance of high-end products was brilliant, and the structure continued to be optimized. In terms of split volume and price, Q1 achieved a sales volume of 794200 kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of + 11.70%, and the growth rate is much higher than that of the industry (- 1.5%); The ton price was 4828 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 4.9%. In terms of grades, the company’s high-end / mainstream / economic income was 1.37/19.9/390 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 24.04% / + 13.17% / + 12.84% respectively. The high-end medium and large single products Wusu and 1664 increased well, driving the continuous improvement of the company’s overall structure. In terms of subregions, the revenue of Northwest / central / southern regions is 1.196/16.6/900 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.96% / + 20.68% / + 14.13% respectively. It is expected that all regions will realize the simultaneous increase of volume and price.
Decrease in gross profit rate + increase in expense rate, leading the industry in profitability
On the cost side, the gross profit margin of Q1 under the company’s comparable caliber was 47.7%, with a year-on-year increase of -0.18pct. Although the cost of raw materials such as barley and cans was under pressure, the gross profit margin remained stable thanks to diversified procurement measures such as the improvement of the company’s structure, price increase and price lock-in. On the expense side, the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates of Q1 company were 13.71% / 3.40% / 0.58% / – 0.19% respectively, and the year-on-year rate was + 0.61 / – 0.79 / – 0.07 / – 0.29pct respectively under the comparable caliber. The overall expense rate decreased slightly year-on-year, and the management expense decreased more, mainly due to the cost savings brought by organization optimization, efficiency improvement and operation cost management projects. The increase of income tax rate has an impact on profits. On the whole, Q1 net profit rate and parent net profit rate were 17.87% / 8.89% respectively, which were -0.96 / – 0.14pct compared with the same period last year. The corresponding net profit and parent net profit were 685 million yuan and 341 million yuan respectively, which were + 11.2% / + 15.3% compared with last year. The profitability continued to be the industry leader.
Carlsberg continued to set sail for 27 years
Looking forward to the whole year, the epidemic situation in China has gradually improved and its impact on the industry and the company has continued to weaken. We continue to be optimistic about the rise of the company’s annual revenue and price; Although the cost side is under pressure, the company has locked in core raw materials such as barley, hops and packaging materials in advance. The superposition of price increase of large single products + upgrading of product structure is expected to effectively alleviate the pressure on the cost side, and the profit growth is still good.
The rapid development of heavy beer in the past two years is inseparable from the explosive growth of Wusu outside Xinjiang. Wusu has rapidly improved its brand popularity nationwide with excellent quality, unique tonality and rapid regional expansion. Wusu’s expansion outside Xinjiang is not over yet. With the further optimization of organization (BU adjustment) + production capacity (technical transformation in Xinjiang and new addition outside Xinjiang) + market (extending from big cities to the whole market) + brand (online red brand, matrix Marketing) + price increase + product matrix (Loulan secret brew and small bottle), Wusu is expected to become another large beer product with a capacity of more than one million tons in China and continuously improve its scale. In Carlsberg’s high-end brand matrix, there are still international high-end brands such as 1664, Xia Rifan and Greenberg, as well as strong brands with regional characteristics such as Chongqing, Xixia and Fenghuaxueyue, which have reserved a rich brand portfolio for continuous growth. We are optimistic that the company will continue to “sail 27” in the next five years, promote the high-end products, promote the continuous innovation of sales model and the continuous improvement of supply chain efficiency, and improve the profit quality and industry market share of heavy beer.
Profit forecast
Referring to the first quarterly report, we maintain the forecast of the company’s operating revenue of 15.388/17.590/19.52 billion yuan in 22-24 years; Maintain Eps3 for 22-24 years RMB 34.05/4; Corresponding to the closing price of 126.4 yuan / share on April 28, 2022, PE is 41 / 34 / 29 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating of the company.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials rose, industry competition intensified, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations
